Narrowing Poll Margins: Trump Gains Ground on Harris in Key Battleground States

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
30/09/2024 19h00

### Trump Closes Gap with Harris in Key Battleground States, New Poll Shows

Former President Donald Trump has significantly closed the gap on Vice President Kamala Harris in the pivotal states of Michigan and Wisconsin, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll. The latest survey reveals a tight race, with Harris receiving 48% support among likely voters in Michigan to Trump's 47%, placing them in a virtual tie within the poll’s margin of error. Similarly, in Wisconsin, Harris polled at 49% while Trump stands close at 47%.

The economy remains the foremost concern for voters, with Trump’s perceived strength in handling economic issues helping him erode Harris’ marginal lead in these battleground areas. This shift in voter sentiment marks a notable change from the August New York Times/Siena College survey, where Harris led Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46%, across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That earlier poll was significant as it was the first conducted after Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee following President Joe Biden’s exit in July.

With the election just under 40 days away, the poll indicates that Harris holds a nine percentage point lead in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. This district’s single electoral vote could potentially be decisive in the Electoral College. According to the Times, if Harris secures victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania while Trump wins the Sun Belt states, she could reach the critical threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

While Ohio is not considered a battleground state for the presidential race, it is notable for one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation between Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. The poll shows Trump leading Harris by six points in Ohio, whereas Brown holds a four-point lead over Moreno.

Democrats have maintained an edge in Wisconsin presidential polling for several months. This state has seen elections decided by less than a percentage point in four of the last six presidential contests, including President Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 and Trump’s razor-thin win in 2016. In Michigan, which Biden carried by three points in 2020, Trump had won the state by a mere three-tenths of a point in 2016.

Abortion has emerged as the second most important issue for voters in Michigan and Wisconsin. The new poll indicates that 18% of voters cite abortion as their top issue, an increase from 13% in May. On this issue, Harris maintains a 20-point lead over Trump in Michigan but sees her advantage narrow to 13 points in Wisconsin, down from a 22-point lead in August.

The developments in these battleground states paint a picture of a fiercely contested race as both candidates approach the final stretch ahead of the November 5 election.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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