Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, widely regarded as one of the most popular leaders in the world, suffered a surprising underperformance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, with his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) falling short of expectations. Despite their previous outright majority, the BJP won only 240 seats, losing their parliamentary majority and forcing Modi to lead a coalition government. This unexpected turn of events has led to speculation and analysis on the reasons behind Modi's decline and what it means for Indian politics.

Firstly, voters punished Modi for prioritizing his Hindu nationalist agenda over addressing the country's unequal economy. While India boasts the fastest-growing economy globally, concerns arose regarding the distribution of wealth. Ordinary Indians felt the impact of price rises, high unemployment rates among youth, and policies that negatively affected farmers. The BJP's focus on policy experiments rather than basic needs such as job creation, healthcare, and education left voters dissatisfied.

Secondly, the decline of liberal democracy under BJP rule was a genuine concern for Indian voters. Modi's government faced criticism for concentrating power in his hands, undermining key pillars of Indian democracy, such as a free press and independent judiciary. Contrary to previous assumptions, the BJP's underperformance suggests that voters value liberal democratic principles and are not supportive of the assault on them.

Thirdly, the opposition parties ran a strategic campaign that targeted Modi's vulnerabilities on the economy and democracy. They capitalized on discontent with Modi's economic policies, including failed attempts at implementing cashless payments and an ineffective response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The opposition successfully highlighted how these policy mistakes contributed to dissatisfaction and economic mismanagement under Modi's leadership.

The outcome of the 2024 election in India holds important lessons for other democracies, particularly the United States as it heads into its own election in November. It demonstrates that populist leaders, even with strong reputations, can face setbacks if voters remember past mistakes and prioritize economic concerns over identity-based appeals.

One of the most significant surprises was the BJP's losses in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, India's most populous states. These were previously considered strongholds for the BJP, where their strategy of emphasizing Hindu-majority support had been successful. However, data analysis reveals that the BJP lost parliamentary seats reserved for Dalits, the lowest caste grouping in the Hindu hierarchy. This reversal in Dalit support can be attributed to their concerns about the BJP's potential to amend India's constitution, which contains protections for Dalit equality.

The election outcomes suggest that Modi's brazen assault on Indian institutions, such as the anti-Muslim campaign in Uttar Pradesh and the construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, likely alienated voters. The BJP not only lost in Uttar Pradesh but specifically lost the constituency where the Ayodhya temple is located, which is a direct electoral rebuke to the party's ideology.

As India reflects on these election results, it serves as a reminder that even influential leaders like Modi are not immune to setbacks when issues of economic inequality and erosion of democratic principles become prominent concerns. Narendra Modi will continue to serve as prime minister, albeit leading a coalition government that necessitates cooperation with other parties. The implications of this surprising election outcome will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Indian politics in the coming years.