Latin American Diplomatic Effort to Resolve Venezuelan Election Dispute Losing Steam
ICARO Media Group
In a rare move that broke from decades of hands-off diplomacy, the presidents of Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, known as the "three amigos," entered into the high-stakes standoff between Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and his opponents over the country's presidential election. However, experts are now expressing doubts about the effectiveness of this diplomatic effort.
The intervention by Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and Colombia's Gustavo Petro was initially welcomed by Venezuela's opposition and the United States as an opportunity to resolve the election dispute. Lula, who dispatched a close aide to monitor the electoral process, refused to recognize Maduro's claim of victory.
Together with López Obrador and Petro, Lula called on Venezuelan authorities to publish detailed tallies of election results, as was the customary practice, in order to verify Maduro's win. Opposition politicians claimed to have obtained more than 80% of the country's vote tally sheets, which they say showed challenger Edmundo González winning by a two-to-one margin. This led the US and many other nations to support González's claim.
However, the trio of Latin American presidents has faced several obstacles, hindering their peacemaking efforts. Mexican President López Obrador recently indicated that he would step back from the mediation process to await the results of an audit being conducted by Venezuela's supreme court. Critics argue that given the court's pro-government leanings, such an audit is unlikely to yield unbiased results.
Moreover, the division among Latin America's left, along with pressure from the United States for Maduro to accept his defeat and step aside, has further complicated the situation. Experts believe that instead of defending democracy, the mediation effort has focused on avoiding conflict and a new wave of migration.
As time passes, Maduro has used this window of opportunity to strengthen his rule and crackdown on the opposition. The trio's attempts to arrange a phone call with Maduro have so far been unsuccessful, leaving doubts about the effectiveness and prospects of their diplomatic endeavor.
"It's hard to be optimistic," said Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. The cautious approach by Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia has allowed Maduro to consolidate his power, leaving many to question the true objectives of this peacemaking effort.
While the three presidents may have initially held promise as an impartial mediator, the lack of progress and ongoing repression in Venezuela suggest that their diplomatic efforts are losing momentum. As Maduro continues to resist acknowledging defeat, the resolution of Venezuela's disputed election appears to be a distant goal.