Kamala Harris Trails Behind Donald Trump in Key Battleground States, New Poll Reveals

ICARO Media Group
Politics
21/08/2024 20h27

According to a recent poll conducted by Navigator Research, Vice President Kamala Harris is not leading in any of the crucial battleground states. The survey, carried out between July 31 and August 8, indicates that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tie in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Harris is trailing behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

During the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden managed to secure wins in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump emerged victorious in North Carolina. However, the current polling data suggests that the race is now extremely close in these states.

In Michigan, both candidates are tied with 44 percent of the vote each, when third-party candidates are taken into account. A similar situation arises in Wisconsin, where they are also tied at 45 percent. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, they stand at an equal 46 percent. However, Harris is facing a slight disadvantage in Arizona and Pennsylvania, with Trump leading by 1 point in Arizona (46 percent) and 2 points in Pennsylvania (46 percent).

Overall, when considering all the battleground states and accounting for third-party candidates, the race stands at an even 45 percent. This poll surveyed 600 likely voters in each battleground state and carried a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The results indicate that 7 percent of voters are leaning towards a third-party candidate, while 3 percent remain undecided.

Efforts to seek comment from the Harris campaign on the poll results are currently underway, as Newsweek has reached out to them via email.

Consistent with earlier surveys, Harris enjoys stronger support among women, as well as Black and Hispanic voters. Trump, on the other hand, maintains an edge among men and white voters. This trend is reflected in the current poll results. However, opinions differ when it comes to independent voters. Some previous national surveys, such as those conducted by ActiVote and the Economist and YouGov, showed Harris leading among independent voters, while others, like J.L. Partners, gave the edge to Trump.

Navigational Research's study reveals that Harris is trailing Trump among independents by 5 points (38 percent to 43 percent). Moreover, the deficit between the two candidates is more significant among independent men, with 31 percent supporting Harris and 50 percent favoring Trump, compared to independent women, who stand at 39 percent for Harris and 39 percent for Trump. The poll also highlights that Harris's favorability rating among independents is lower than Trump's, with 39 percent of independent voters viewing her favorably, while Trump's favorability stands at 46 percent. Additionally, 59 percent of respondents view Harris unfavorably, while 53 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump. These figures indicate that Vice President Harris is facing challenges in winning over independent voters.

Since launching her campaign in July, Harris has consistently polled slightly ahead of Trump in national polls, with several aggregators showing her in the lead. However, the situation in the battleground states is more volatile, with Harris leading in some and Trump leading in others. For instance, a recent poll released by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump had the advantage in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. Another YouGov/CBS poll from August 2 also indicated a deadlock between the two candidates in all the battleground states.

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, Harris currently holds the lead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan, while Trump leads in North Carolina. The data also highlights that Harris has managed to reduce Trump's margins across all swing states, compared to June when Biden was still in the race.

As the 2024 Presidential Election looms closer, these poll findings shed light on the fiercely contested battleground states where both parties will be targeting their efforts to secure crucial electoral votes. With the race too close to call in these pivotal states, the coming months are likely to see intense campaigning as candidates seek to gain the upper hand and sway undecided voters in their favor.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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