Kamala Harris Takes Lead Over Trump in Race for White House, Recent Polls Show

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
06/08/2024 18h11

In a recent development that could potentially alter the course of the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris, the Vice President of the United States, has surged ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to several national head-to-head polls. The polls indicate a noticeable shift in favor of the Democrat since January, with a seven-point swing in Harris' favor.

Recent national polls conducted by SurveyUSA, Morning Consult, YouGov, CBS News, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst revealed Harris leading Trump by various margins. SurveyUSA and Morning Consult showed Harris ahead by three and four points respectively, while YouGov and CBS News indicated a narrow one-point lead for the Vice President. The University of Massachusetts Amherst put Harris ahead by three points.

Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of its poll, highlighted the significant finding, emphasizing the seven-point swing towards the Democrats since January. Nteta mentioned the doubts voiced by Democratic donors, elected officials, and media personalities about Joe Biden's chances against Trump after the first presidential debate in June. However, with Biden's decision not to seek re-election and the emergence of Kamala Harris as his replacement, the dynamics of the race have shifted considerably.

Despite the positive trajectory for Harris in national polls, battleground states present a more mixed picture. Recent polls in seven crucial states, including Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, indicate a close race. Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Harris leading by one point in Georgia but trailing by two points in Arizona and one point in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, the right-leaning Trafalgar/Insider Advantage poll indicated a two-point lead for Trump in Georgia.

According to polling site FiveThirtyEight's battleground averages, Trump holds a four-point lead over Harris in Georgia, a two-point lead in Arizona, while Harris is ahead by two points in Michigan, one point in Pennsylvania, and one and a half points in Wisconsin. In North Carolina, polls collected by FiveThirtyEight showed Trump leading by a shrinking margin, from nine points in mid-July to two points in early August.

Good news for Harris comes from New York, a solidly Democratic state, where a Siena College poll revealed her leading by 14 points over Trump. This indicates a growing support base for the Vice President even in states traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party.

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a prominent polling analyst, acknowledged Harris' significant lead in national polls, approximately two points, along with her recent favorable positions in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, concerns about economic conditions and reports of recession fears remain significant factors to consider.

With the elections still three months away, the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party seem confident in their chances to retain control of the White House and prevent Donald Trump from securing a second consecutive term. The momentum shown in recent polls has provided a boost for Harris, but the road to victory remains uncertain as the race intensifies.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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