In a dramatic turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in a critical swing state, according to Nate Silver's polling average on his Silver Bulletin website. This shift comes after President Joe Biden's unprecedented decision to drop out of the race and endorse his VP on July 21. Since then, Harris, now the official Democratic nominee, has seen a surge in the polls, surpassing Trump not only in national polling averages but also in key swing states.

Earlier this week, Nate Silver, the founder of ABC News' FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site, revealed that Kamala Harris now leads Trump in Arizona, as indicated by his Silver Bulletin polling average. The average shows Harris with 45.3 percent, ahead of Trump who stands at 44 percent in the state. Additionally, Silver's averages already had Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

While Harris still trails behind in North Carolina, according to Silver's polling average, the race remains tight. Harris currently stands at 45.4 percent, while Trump holds a narrow lead at 46 percent. The polling averages reflect Harris' growing momentum and popularity among voters in critical swing states.

This recent development has led political analysts to speculate about the potential factors contributing to Harris' rise in popularity. The Democratic ticket's focus on progressive policies, coupled with Biden's endorsement of Harris, seems to have resonated positively with voters. Additionally, Harris' strong stance on issues such as immigration and economic policies may be appealing to voters seeking change and stability.

Newsweek reached out by email to the Harris campaign for comment on these poll results. Meanwhile, during a recent press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, former President Donald Trump confidently declared, "I'm leading by a lot," without providing specific polling data.

Team Trump's Arizona Communications Director, Halee Dobbins, responded to the poll numbers, blaming the Harris-Biden administration's policies for making living in Arizona more challenging and less safe. Dobbins further highlighted concerns of historic inflation and the perceived impact of Harris' open border agenda.

Despite differing polling averages from various sources, the trend shows Harris gaining ground over Trump in critical swing states. FiveThirtyEight's average also reflects Harris leading Trump in Arizona, while The Hill's polling average indicates a narrow lead for Trump in the same state.

It is worth noting that in the 2020 election, Biden narrowly won Arizona, securing 49.4 percent of the state's votes compared to Trump's 49.1 percent, with a margin of less than 10,500 votes. This victory marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had carried Arizona since 1996.

As the race for the 2024 presidential election continues to unfold, these polling averages provide insight into the changing dynamics between Harris and Trump in critical swing states. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining who will secure these key states and gain the edge in the race for the White House.