Kamala Harris Narrows Gender Gap in Contest Against Donald Trump, New Poll Shows

ICARO Media Group
Politics
05/11/2024 19h06

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Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed former President Donald Trump's previously commanding lead among male voters, according to recent polling data. A Marist Poll reveals that Harris, who trailed Trump by 16 points among men at the beginning of October, now trails by only 4 points. The poll, conducted between October 31 and November 2, indicates Trump currently holds 51 percent of male support to Harris's 47 percent.

This shift represents a dramatic change from an October 3 poll by NPR/PBS News/Marist, where Trump led with 57 percent compared to Harris's 41 percent among male voters. Concurrently, Harris's lead among women has been reduced. Where she previously held an 18-point advantage with 58 percent support compared to Trump's 40 percent, the latest figures show her lead has shrunk to 11 points—55 percent to 44 percent.

The falling gender gap has been a crucial factor in this contentious election, shrinking from 34 points at the start of October to just 15 points now. Pollster data illustrates this pattern: on average, women favor Harris by 8 points, while men prefer Trump by 10 points.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight now lists Harris as the slight favorite to win the election, with simulations indicating that she secures victory 50 times out of 100, compared to Trump's 49 times. Nate Silver’s independent forecast through The Silver Bulletin mirrors this tight race, showing Harris winning in 50.015 percent of cases out of 80,000 simulations.

The ongoing battle for voter support underscores the enduring political divide between female and male voters, a trend that has been steadily growing since the 1980s. As both candidates continue to vie for every vote, gender is poised to be a determining factor in the upcoming election outcome.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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