**Kamala Harris Leads in Key Rust Belt States Amid Tightening Race**

Vice President Kamala Harris is showing a lead in critical Rust Belt states, according to recent polling data. The Bullfinch Group's survey, conducted from October 11 to 17, reveals Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In Michigan, Harris holds her most significant advantage, surpassing Trump by 8 points in a direct matchup, standing at 53 percent compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Even when third-party candidates are considered, her lead remains steady at 8 points, with Harris holding 51 percent and Trump 43 percent.

However, Harris's advantage narrows in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where her lead falls within the margin of error. In Wisconsin, she leads by 3 points head-to-head and by 2 points when third-party candidates are included. Harris and Trump are tied in a direct contest in Pennsylvania, though she edges ahead by 1 point when accounting for third-party candidates. The poll, which included 1,800 likely voters from these three states, has a margin of error of ±4 points.

These findings come as the Harris campaign confronts declining numbers in an increasingly competitive race. Vice President Harris became the Democratic frontrunner after Biden's victory in these three states in 2020 reversed Trump's 2016 win there. Initially, Trump had been leading against Biden in these states until Harris stepped in as the Democratic nominee.

According to FiveThirtyEight's tracker, Harris’s lead has weakened over the last three weeks. As of now, she leads in Pennsylvania by just 0.1 points, down from 1.3 points on September 28, and in Wisconsin by 0.1 points, down from 2.2 points. In Michigan, her lead is at 0.6 points, a decline from 2.4 points during the same period.

Nationally, polls also reflect tightening competition. A Fox News poll, surveying from October 11 to 14, suggests Trump is ahead by 2 points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This is a notable shift from September when Harris led by 2 points. Similarly, an early October ActiVote poll indicates Trump with a 1.2-point national lead, contrasting with Harris's 5.4-point lead in September.

Trump has made significant strides in critical swing states, according to a Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll from October 9, which shows him leading in all seven battleground states. RealClearPolitics' projections now have Trump winning each of these key states, pushing him towards an Electoral College victory with an estimated 312 votes to Harris’s 226.

Despite these developments, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's forecasts still show Harris leading in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, crucial states for her potential victory. Harris requires 44 electoral votes from these swing states to secure the presidency, while Trump needs 51.

Nate Silver recently described the race as "literally 50/50," with swing states reflecting a nearly even split. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.1 points nationally, while Silver’s tracker puts her ahead by 2.3 points. As of now, Silver's forecast suggests Trump has a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to 49.5 percent for Harris.