In a recent development, Israeli forces have conducted strikes on the southern city of Rafah, resulting in the deaths of at least 11 people, including five children. These strikes come as reports suggest that the Biden administration has approved Israel's plan to attack Rafah in exchange for Israel refraining from launching counterstrikes on Iran.

The approval of Israel's attack on Rafah is seen as a trade-off to prevent Israel from escalating tensions with Iran, which could potentially lead to a wider regional conflict. Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel analyst for the International Crisis Group, explains that Israel now has the advantage of wielding both threats: launching a deadly invasion on Rafah that would significantly increase the Palestinian death toll in Gaza or initiating an attack on Iran that could spark a broader war.

Zonszein emphasizes that while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approval within the country has greatly diminished, the military campaign shows no sign of stopping. She notes that Israeli society, largely right-wing and often focused on its own security, has become accustomed to acting with impunity and disregarding the issue of Palestinian rights and the occupation.

The situation further complicated when, on April 1st, Israel conducted a strike on a consulate facility in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the death of senior Iranian military officers. Following this, Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel, fueling Israel's justification for recent military actions. Zonszein suggests that Netanyahu's decision to strike the consulate was influenced by a desire to regain legitimacy and foster international cooperation against the perceived Iranian threat.

The situation becomes even more precarious as reports suggest that the Biden administration has not taken a strong stance against Israel's plan to invade Rafah. Despite some rhetorical pushback, the US support for Israel's war effort remains largely intact. Zonszein points out that this trade-off is likely perceived by Israel as merely a performative gesture, as the US has historically supported Israel's military actions.

The approval of Israel's attack on Rafah, combined with the potential for a retaliatory strike on Iran, thrusts the region into a dangerous state of uncertainty. Israel's military campaign, which aims to achieve total victory but has faced mounting challenges and criticism, is now compelled to consider its response to Iran's recent strike. Consequently, Israel now holds the dual threats of an invasion on Rafah and an attack on Iran, leaving the international community to grapple with the repercussions of these potential actions.

The situation remains highly fluid, and the world watches with growing concern as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intertwines with the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The fate of the region hinges on how Israel's military campaign unfolds and the global response to the looming threats it presents.