In the wake of a relentless onslaught of over 300 Iranian drones and missiles, Israel is grappling with the decision on how to respond. The attack was reportedly launched in retaliation for Israel's own strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1. Israeli defenses, including its jets and the Iron Dome missile defense system, aided by allies such as the United States and Jordan, managed to intercept 99 percent of the projectiles.

While Western diplomats and US President Joe Biden have informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that they will not support further retaliation, some analysts speculate that the recent strikes may be part of a broader ploy to draw the US, Israel's close ally, into a larger regional conflict.

Analysts are closely examining Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate on April 1 to determine how Israel may respond to the overnight assault. Two scenarios have been outlined by experts. In the first scenario, the Israeli strike was carried out with little consideration of the consequences. In the second scenario, the attack was a deliberate move to engage Iran in a regional war and shift focus away from Israel's conflict with Gaza towards Iran as a regional threat. In both scenarios, US involvement would play a critical role.

Israel's military capacity, already strained by the six-month-long conflict with Gaza, is dwarfed by Iran's standing army, which comprises at least 580,000 personnel along with a reserve force of 200,000, divided between the regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow at Chatham House, Netanyahu's intentions go beyond Israel's interests alone and likely reflect concerns about his dwindling popularity. The prime minister's reputation has suffered a blow after Hamas-led fighters launched a surprise attack on October 7. Polls in Israel indicate a critical decline in Netanyahu's popularity, as outcry mounts against his handling of the war on Gaza.

As Israel contemplates its response to the recent attack, the focus turns to US support. However, the US has signaled a diplomatic approach, emphasizing the need for restraint and a unified Western diplomatic response to Iran's actions. This puts Netanyahu's gambit at risk, as the US shows no interest in further escalation.

Diplomatically, Israel's response mimics its reaction to the earlier attack, calling for a UN Security Council meeting to rally international support. However, Iran seems less likely to face consequences for its strike on Israel, potentially widening the divides within Israel's cabinet and society should no action be taken.

As the situation hangs in the balance, it remains to be seen how Israel will navigate this delicate dilemma, weighing the risks of military retaliation against the potential for further regional instability.