Influential Election Polls: Harris and Trump Neck-and-Neck in Crucial Battleground States

ICARO Media Group
Politics
28/09/2024 18h47

### Harris and Trump Locked in Tight Race in Crucial Battleground States, New Polls Reveal

In a nail-biting race just weeks before Election Day, fresh polling data shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a virtual dead heat across pivotal battleground states. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Saturday indicates Harris holding a marginal lead over Trump in Wisconsin, polling at 49 percent compared to Trump's 47 percent. The scenario is similar in Michigan, where Harris polls at 48 percent against Trump’s 47 percent. Nonetheless, Trump edges out Harris in Ohio with a 50 percent to 44 percent lead.

Parallel insights from Fox News polls reveal a neck-and-neck contest in Pennsylvania, where both candidates are deadlocked at 49 percent. In North Carolina, Trump leads slightly with 50 percent to Harris’s 49 percent.

Remarkably, the Fox poll also highlights Democrat Josh Stein expanding his substantial lead over Republican Mark Robinson in North Carolina's gubernatorial race by a 16-point margin. Stein is currently polling at 56 percent, while Robinson, entangled in scandal due to resurfaced old posts on a pornography site, stands at 40 percent.

Saturday’s polls come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena survey from earlier in the week, which illustrated Trump gaining slight edges in key Sun Belt states like Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. This is a notable turn, as Harris had formerly led in Arizona and North Carolina as recently as August.

However, Trump's influence does not seem to extend down the ballot. In key Senate races, Republican challengers endorsed by Trump trail behind Democratic incumbents. In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by 50 percent to 43 percent. Michigan sees Sen. Elissa Slotkin ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, polling at 47 to 42 percent. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown maintains a 47 percent lead over Republican Bernie Moreno, who polls at 43 percent.

These findings underscore the uphill battle for Democrats in retaining their Senate majority, particularly with Sen. Sherrod Brown's race in Ohio and Sen. Jon Tester’s race in Montana being critical to their strategy. Both states had decisively voted for Trump in 2020, with current Ohio polling now leaning 50 percent for Trump compared to 44 percent for Harris.

The polling data emerges at the end of a tumultuous summer marked by significant political events, such as President Joe Biden's exit from the race and multiple assassination attempts on Trump's life. Both Harris and Trump faced off in a contentious debate earlier this month, which was deemed a robust performance by the Democratic nominee.

The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed likely voters via phone interviews between September 21 and 26, with a margin of error of approximately +/- 4 percentage points for individual polls and +/- 2.5 percentage points for combined state data. Fox News conducted its Pennsylvania poll via call or online survey between September 20 and 24, and its North Carolina poll within the same period, each reflecting a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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