In recent national polls, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has reached the 15% threshold in three approved polls, bringing him closer to qualifying for the upcoming debate on June 27 alongside Democratic President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. However, historical data and experts suggest that these polling numbers may not accurately predict Kennedy's performance in the November election.

According to an analysis by the Associated Press using Gallup data dating back to 1980, it is not uncommon for third-party candidates to appear to have polling momentum leading up to an election, only to fall short on Election Day. The polls serve as a snapshot of current support but do not necessarily indicate future voting behavior, especially considering the months separating the polls and the actual election date.

Researchers have found that people struggle to predict their own future behavior, and this uncertainty is magnified when it comes to voting, given the dynamic nature of political campaigns. Additionally, in a year characterized by two highly unpopular major party candidates, voters might be using early support for third-party candidates like Kennedy to express their dissatisfaction with the main choices. Ultimately, final decisions may hinge on whether voters believe their vote can make a difference or if they choose not to vote at all.

The idea of a third party has long held popularity among Americans. A 1999 Gallup poll found that two-thirds of U.S. adults favored the notion of a third political party that would run candidates for various offices. Similar sentiments have persisted in recent years, where, in Gallup polling since 2013, around 60% of adults have stated that the Republican and Democratic parties do a poor job representing the American people, making the need for a third major party apparent.

Despite this initial enthusiasm, Marjorie Hershey, a professor emeritus at Indiana University, highlights the difference between liking the concept of a third party in theory and supporting specific policies and candidates. The appeal for more choices weakens once these specifics emerge. The support that third-party candidates often receive in early polling tends to dissipate as the campaign progresses and voters encounter the realities and trade-offs associated with different platforms and candidates.

The AP analysis delves into historical instances where third-party candidates experienced early polling success that did not translate into significant electoral gains. For example, in the 1980 election, independent candidate John Anderson garnered between 21% and 24% support in polls conducted in May and June, yet he ultimately received only 7% of the popular vote. Similarly, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate in the 2016 election, polled between 5% and 12% during the summer months, but he ultimately secured only about 3% of the vote.

Johnson himself believes that low fundraising often hampers independent candidates, as people are less inclined to donate if they perceive them as unlikely to win. The lack of resources further limits their visibility and campaign reach, thereby hindering their chances of success.

While the American electoral system presents challenges for third parties to thrive, it is still possible for them to exert a significant impact without winning. Billionaire businessman Ross Perot gained 19% of the vote in the 1992 presidential race, but this was significantly lower than the support he received in earlier polling, where figures ranged from 30% to 39%.

As for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., it remains uncertain whether his current polling support will hold leading up to the November election. Experts caution that the Kennedy name may play a significant role in his popularity, differentiating his candidacy from previous third-party contenders. Moreover, support for Kennedy could also reflect frustration with the major party candidates rather than genuine endorsement of his policies and views.

Ultimately, early poll numbers should be approached with caution, as they may not necessarily reflect the actual political issues at hand but rather general sentiments about life. The months leading up to the election are bound to introduce new dynamics that could influence voters' decisions, making it crucial to monitor how support for Kennedy and other third-party candidates evolves in the coming months.