According to internal government data obtained by CBS News, the number of migrants unlawfully crossing the U.S. southern border has continued to drop significantly in July. This trend puts the Biden administration's partial ban on asylum claims at risk of being lifted.

The figures from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reveal that July is on track to mark the fifth consecutive monthly decrease in migrant apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border. In fact, it is expected to reach the lowest level of illegal immigration since the fall of 2020, during the Trump administration.

In early June, President Biden utilized his presidential authority to suspend the entry of most migrants entering the U.S. illegally, effectively closing off access to the American asylum system outside of official ports of entry. This action further reduced illegal border crossings, which were already declining before the ban took effect. June saw a three-year low in illegal crossings.

The DHS regulation implementing President Biden's proclamation stated that the asylum ban would be lifted if the 7-day average of daily migrant apprehensions between ports of entry fell to 1,500. The internal DHS figures now indicate that the average of daily illegal crossings counted under this regulation has reached approximately 1,650.

However, it is essential to note that these calculations exclude crossings by unaccompanied children who are not from Mexico. Such children are typically housed in government-run shelters until they turn 18 or are placed with a U.S.-based sponsor, as mandated by a 2008 anti-trafficking law.

If the 7-day average of daily illegal crossings does dip to 1,500, the regulation stipulates that President Biden's asylum proclamation would be discontinued 14 days after Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas makes a factual determination about the threshold being reached. The regulation claims that a 1,500-encounter threshold indicates when the border security and immigration system are no longer operating above capacity.

While illegal border crossings are closing in on the 1,500 deactivation threshold, it is possible that they may remain above that number, thus keeping the partial asylum ban intact. Even if the threshold is eventually reached, President Biden's proclamation could be reinstated if the 7-day average of daily illegal crossings were to rebound to 2,500.

A senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection official has stated that the agency does not anticipate the immediate deactivation of the asylum ban, as illegal crossings appear to be plateauing. However, preparations have been made internally in case the 1,500 trigger is reached.

In the month of July, Border Patrol is set to record fewer than 60,000 migrant apprehensions, the lowest level since September 2020. This represents a significant shift from the record-breaking influx of a quarter-million illegal crossings witnessed in December of last year.

Experts attribute the sustained drop in migrant crossings to the Mexican government's migration crackdown, which was intensified at the request of U.S. officials. Additionally, the summer temperatures in the southern U.S. have made the journey even more dangerous.

President Biden's partial shutdown of asylum processing has also contributed to the decrease in unlawful crossings. The policy allows for easier deportation of migrants and has significantly reduced releases, which authorities believed were encouraging further migration.

However, certain groups, such as unaccompanied children, medically vulnerable migrants, and those with appointments at legal entry points, are exempt from the partial asylum ban. Additional constraints, such as diplomatic and logistical reasons, prevent regular deportations of some migrants to their home countries.

Progressive advocacy groups have strongly criticized President Biden's asylum crackdown, with the American Civil Liberties Union arguing in federal court that the policy violates U.S. and international refugee law.

The legality of President Biden's actions remains an outstanding question. However, the decrease in releases under the policy is impacting migrants' decisions in the short-term, according to Theresa Cardinal Brown, a senior adviser at the Bipartisan Policy Center and former government immigration official under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

As the border situation continues to evolve, officials are closely monitoring illegal crossings and assessing the potential impact on the asylum ban. The fate of the ban rests on whether the 1,500 deactivation threshold is reached and sustained.