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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a daunting challenge as he prepares for a potentially contentious meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday. Germany's new leader is likely to be confronted with pointed questions on his previous comments about achieving European independence from the U.S. and his remarks suggesting Trump's administration is indifferent to Europe's fate. Given Trump's notorious criticism of Germany, Merz will need to navigate the discussion carefully, especially on sensitive issues like German car exports, NATO support, and the Trump administration's stance on the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Despite the potential for conflict, there are signs the two leaders might find common ground. Both Merz and Trump share backgrounds as wealthy businessmen and avid golfers, and Merz's plans for Germany include policies that align closely with Trump's priorities. These include a significant increase in military spending and a tougher stance on migration. Additionally, the visit coincides with European efforts to defuse tensions in the ongoing EU-U.S. trade war by crafting a potential peace deal on automotive standards.

Merz's invitation to stay at Blair House, the official White House guest house, has offered a glimmer of optimism to German officials, who hope this is a positive sign for the meeting. A White House official, speaking anonymously, downplayed the risk of confrontation, portraying the meeting as a routine visit by a foreign leader. Furthermore, Merz has made efforts to foster a good relationship with Trump, extending an invitation to visit his grandfather’s ancestral German village and recounting a positive telephone conversation with the president.

However, Merz and his team are acutely aware of the unpredictability of Trump’s diplomacy, mindful of past instances where meetings with other foreign leaders have gone awry. The German delegation recalls incidents like Trump’s controversial comments about South Africa and his clashes with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, using these as cautionary tales to prepare for any unexpected twists.

Tensions have eased somewhat after Merz's government adjusted its policies to align more closely with Trump’s expectations. By committing to ramp up defense spending and emphasizing the need for NATO, Merz has managed to soften the initial rocky start between Berlin and Washington. This shift was highlighted in May when Merz visited NATO headquarters and acknowledged a positive change in the Trump administration’s stance toward Europe, reasserting the U.S. as indispensable for Europe’s security.

The stakes remain high for Merz going into the meeting, with critical issues such as European defense capabilities, collective strategies against Russian aggression, and the resolution of the transatlantic trade conflict hanging in the balance. Nevertheless, Berlin’s recent conciliatory moves, coupled with the potential for personal rapport between Merz and Trump, offer a hopeful prospect for the discussions ahead. As his meeting with Trump looms, Merz is prepared to trust his instincts and diplomatic skills to steer the conversation in a productive direction.