Harris and Trump Remain Locked in a Close Race Ahead of the Debate
ICARO Media Group
As the highly anticipated debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump approaches, the stakes couldn't be higher. With fresh polling in mind, it appears that Harris' momentum has not been reversed, despite a slight slowdown. Although she continues to gain popularity and energize Democratic voters, the race remains exceedingly close.
Based on the latest polls, Harris maintains a national lead of between 1 and 3 percentage points on average, while Trump currently holds a 2-point lead in a poll by The New York Times/Siena College. However, given the Republicans' advantage in the Electoral College, Harris' lead is closer to Hillary Clinton's narrow popular-vote victory in 2016 than Joe Biden's more sizable win in 2020.
Notably, the battleground states also see a highly competitive race, with each of the seven states being contested by both campaigns within a 3-point margin in either direction. Harris' largest lead is in Wisconsin, with a 2.7-point advantage in the FiveThirtyEight average, while Trump holds a 2.1-point lead in Arizona according to the Silver Bulletin average.
The narrowing gap between the candidates can be attributed to several factors. Harris saw a surge in popularity after becoming the Democratic candidate, but that surge appears to have reached its limit for now. While she garners a relatively equal number of favorable and unfavorable opinions, it still puts her ahead of Trump, who has an average favorable rating of 44 percent.
The upcoming debate carries significant risk and upside for both candidates. While 90 percent of voters claim to already know everything they need to know about Trump, only 71 percent say the same about Harris. This suggests that her performance in the debate could influence her numbers more significantly than Trump's.
When looking at the third-party candidates' impact, it is evident that interest has significantly waned. The absence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the race has led to decreased interest in third-party options. Only a few polls now include these candidates, with Libertarian Chase Oliver earning 2 percent of the vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein receiving 1 percent, while Kennedy's name is expected to remain on the ballot in a few states.
Enthusiasm among Democratic voters has caught up to Republicans, with equal levels of excitement for both parties. Likewise, Harris and Trump supporters are equally "very enthusiastic" about voting in the November election. This enthusiasm reflects in voter intentions, with a similar percentage of both Democratic and Republican voters being "almost certain" to cast their votes.
The economy remains a crucial issue for voters, with Trump maintaining an advantage over Harris in terms of perceived capability to handle the economy. However, Democrats hope that Harris can narrow the significant gap that existed between Trump and Biden earlier this year.
Americans' overall perception of the country's direction still remains negative, but Harris could benefit from a continued improvement in this area. While a majority of Harris voters believe that the country is on the right track, a notable percentage still hold the opposite view. This contributes to Harris' attempt to position herself as a candidate for change, despite her current role in the administration.
As Harris and Trump prepare to face off in the debate, both candidates are aware of the close race and the potential to sway undecided voters. Harris' campaign has unveiled the "New Way Forward Tour," signaling her intention to focus on presenting herself as the candidate offering a fresh approach.
With the electoral landscape remaining razor-thin, all eyes will be on the debate as Harris and Trump make their final appeals to reshape the trajectory of the race.