### Trump's Victory in 2024 Election Sparks Global Trade Concerns

Donald Trump has emerged victorious in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, raising concerns about the global trade landscape among politicians and regulators worldwide. The implications of a second Trump presidency are particularly worrisome for Europe, according to analysts who spoke to Business Insider.

During Trump's first term, his "America First" policies led to significant trade disputes with China and the European Union. These policies included tariffs on certain goods, which escalated into a trade war with China, involving hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs on both sides. Analysts believe that this time around, Trump's policies could hit Europe especially hard.

Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, stated, "China has already faced significant tariffs and has adapted, but Europe has yet to face them. So if Trump does implement his global tariffs, then Europe would be hit hard." Trump's fondness for tariffs has been well-documented; he once stated, "To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff.'"

During his first term, Trump accused the EU of unfair trade practices, making it "very, very tough" to get U.S. products into the bloc. He imposed tariffs on various European industries, including steel, aluminum, and certain luxury goods. In his recent campaign, Trump pledged to impose a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods and hinted at tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods.

Nigel Green, CEO of the financial advisory firm deVere Group, highlighted that many European companies, particularly in manufacturing, luxury goods, automotive, and tech, are heavily dependent on U.S. markets. He warned that tariffs would significantly increase costs for these companies, reducing their market share in the U.S. and overall valuation. Green added that Europe is already grappling with high energy costs, sluggish economic growth, and geopolitical instability. A trade war with the U.S. under Trump could exacerbate these issues, further destabilizing the region's economy.

Analysts have also raised concerns about the potential reduction of U.S. financial aid to Ukraine, which would force Europe to allocate more spending to the conflict. Additionally, Europe's market could be flooded with cheaper goods due to new tariffs on China.

Morningstar DBRS identified pharmaceuticals, automotive, and chemical products as the sectors most exposed to tariffs, as they represent the majority of EU exports to the U.S. If Trump raises tariffs, it could trigger retaliation from other countries, hampering global economic growth and stoking inflation. Green expressed fears that Europe might retaliate swiftly, just as during Trump's first presidency, adversely affecting U.S. firms with significant exposure to European markets.

Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that the period leading up to Trump’s inauguration will likely be tense for European policymakers, with European stocks already underperforming amid tariff exposure concerns.

Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, congratulated Trump and called for cooperative relations between Europe and the U.S. on Wednesday morning.

The effects of proposed tariffs could extend beyond Europe and China, impacting regions like Australasia and Latin America. Steven Kennedy from Australia's Treasury Department anticipated consequences for Australia's economy, while Fitch Ratings warned that Mexico, heavily reliant on trade with the U.S., could face a significant reduction in GDP due to new tariffs.

Fitch projected that aggressive unilateral tariff hikes by the U.S. could reduce Mexico's GDP by 0.2% to 1.9% relative to baseline expectations, underscoring the broader economic risks posed by a second Trump administration's trade policies.