French Trader Nets $50 Million on Trump's 2024 Victory with Unique Betting Strategy

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
07/11/2024 20h30

**French Bettor Wins $50M on Trump’s 2024 Election Victory**

In an unexpected twist that rocked the gambling world, a French trader who goes by the pseudonym “Théo” has scored an astonishing $50 million by accurately predicting Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

Théo's achievement came to light through communications with the Wall Street Journal, where he detailed his sophisticated betting strategy on the platform Polymarket. His win marks one of the most significant individual payouts in election betting history.

Central to Théo’s success was his strategy of betting against traditional polling data, which in the Trump era, has frequently proven unreliable. To make his $30 million bet on Trump, Théo employed several techniques, including a unique approach dubbed the "neighbor method." This technique involves polling individuals about their neighbors' voting plans, thereby uncovering hidden voter intentions that conventional polls may miss.

Théo meticulously conducted his own surveys to analyze the neighbor effect, discovering that mainstream opinion polls were consistently skewed in favor of Trump’s opponent, former Vice President Kamala Harris. This miscalculation by mainstream polls mirrored past errors that have affected election predictions during Trump’s political tenure.

The betting triumph has drawn comparisons to legendary gambling anecdotes, such as Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder, who famously bet $10,000 on Harry Truman at 17-to-1 odds in the 1948 Presidential election, based on the peculiar observation that women disliked Thomas Dewey’s mustache.

Théo's method and substantial win serve as a compelling case study in the art of unconventional betting strategies, making waves not just in political gambling circles but inspiring bettors across various fields. As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election continues to stir reactions globally, Théo's successful wager stands out as a testament to innovative thinking and calculated risk.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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