France Sees Surge to the Right as Conservative Parliament Looms

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
29/06/2024 17h02

When French voters head to the polls this Sunday, experts predict a significant shift to the right, potentially resulting in the most conservative parliament since WWII. The reasons for this shift can be attributed to widespread dissatisfaction with immigration policies, a struggling economy, a cost-of-living crisis, and discontent with the current centrist government, especially among younger voters.

According to Matthew Tyrmand, an adviser to conservative political candidates and parties across Europe, "France is seeing its biggest shift to the right." He believes that the French people are frustrated with their leadership's focus on EU interests while their own cities experience social unrest, high youth unemployment, rising crime rates, racially motivated attacks, and violence against native French citizens.

The recent European Union elections saw the right-leaning National Rally secure the largest share of votes at 31.4%, establishing itself as a prominent force in French politics. Led by Marine Le Pen, the party has undergone a transformation in recent years, capturing the support of the younger generation with the aid of their 28-year-old president Jordan Bardella.

One of the key concerns driving this right-wing surge is unfettered immigration, with over 320,000 legal immigrants and undocumented migrants entering the country last year. French voters are worried about the instability and violence associated with immigration, particularly in light of headline-making incidents such as terrorist attacks, murders, and assaults. The financial burden placed on taxpayers by social benefits for immigrants also plays a role in shaping public opinion.

The threat of violence has led younger voters to demand the deportation of certain immigrants, with a song circulating on social media platforms expressing their sentiments. This song, popular among Gen-Z individuals aged 11-26, features lyrics such as "I won't leave, Yes, you will leave. And sooner than you think."

The struggling economy under President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party has further fueled dissatisfaction among voters. The cost-of-living crisis following the conflict in Ukraine led to a surge in inflation, peaking at 6.3% in February of last year before decreasing to 2.1% recently. Youth unemployment remains at double-digit levels, and the scarcity of affordable housing has made renting more expensive for young people.

Despite France's economy being comparable to other major European Union countries, such as Germany and Italy, there is a prevailing sentiment that change is needed. Voters often voice their complaints when facing a cost-of-living crisis, providing an advantage to opposing parties.

While rural areas and younger voters favored the National Rally in the recent EU elections, it is expected that these trends will continue. Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, drew a parallel between Bardella's popularity among young voters and the excitement seen during former President Barack Obama's election.

Although a National Rally-led parliament could complicate France's relationship with the EU, analysts argue that it would not threaten the country's membership in the Eurozone or lead to its departure from the European Union.

As the election approaches, Marine Le Pen shows signs of anticipating victory by proposing a role for Bardella in military defense decisions. While the French president is officially the head of the armed forces, the constitution states that "the prime minister is responsible for national defense."

The French parliamentary system requires up to two rounds of voting. Should no party secure an overall majority in the first round, the top two parties will face off in a second round scheduled for July 7. As of Friday, polls suggest that National Rally could secure 37% of the vote, solidifying their position as a formidable political force in France.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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