In light of Iran's failed retaliatory attack against Israel, the Biden administration has hailed the success of the "coalition" comprised of the United States and its Middle Eastern allies in averting a regional war. However, analysts warn that any Israeli response could strain an informal alliance consisting of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. While these nations have cooperated against Iran recently, their collaboration may face challenges domestically.

The Arab countries find themselves in a precarious situation, particularly Jordan, which is trapped between Iran and Israel due to geopolitical reasons, explained Oraib Al Rantawi, director of the Al Quds Center for Political Studies. The recent events have left these nations in a critical position, with no easy solution.

Iran's barrage of more than 300 missiles and drones, which caused limited damage due to interception by American, British, Israeli, and Jordanian forces, was described by National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby as an "extraordinary military success." The operation sent a strong message about Israel's strength compared to Iran's increasing isolation in the region.

However, the Middle Eastern partners of the United States kept a low profile following the events, barely acknowledging their participation. Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi emphasized the country's commitment to defending its sovereignty and airspace, including against Israel. These comments, echoed in foreign media interviews, offered a glimpse into the Jordanian position.

Iran claimed that the attack was in retaliation for an assault on its consular building in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of two senior commanders and five advisers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While Israel has not taken responsibility for the incident, it is widely believed to be behind it.

The potential for a test to Jordan's commitment lies in Israel's response, which may come within hours. Among the three Arab states involved in Israel's defense against Iran, Jordan stands out as the only one sharing a border with Israel and the only one participating in the air operation against the drones.

This episode reveals a shift in the Middle East's dynamics, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sharing intelligence with the United States regarding Iran's plans. Both nations, heavily reliant on Western support according to Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, aim to secure a U.S. security pact. Meanwhile, Jordan's involvement highlights its dependence on diplomatic and economic support from the U.S. and Israel.

Despite being home to a significant Palestinian refugee population, Jordan recognized Israel in 1994, making it the second Arab country to do so. The country's reliance on the West extends to military bases and foreign aid, with Jordan signing a defense agreement for 2021 that grants the American military access to its land and airspace.

The recent participation of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in the American-led "coalition" may hinder the Jordanian government's aspirations to align public policy with public opinion. Jordanians have consistently criticized Israel's actions in Gaza, and this could strain the government's desired domestic harmony, as stated by Rantawi.

As tensions between Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE, and Shia-majority Iran continue to dominate the Middle East, there are concerns that Israel's potential retaliation on Iranian targets may further alienate its newfound Middle Eastern partners. Experts stress the potential dangers if Israel were to strike over Jordanian airspace, urging caution and careful consideration.

The region now awaits Israel's response, as its decision could have far-reaching implications for the fragile alliance and the overall stability of the Middle East.