In a recent development, Fordham Law professor Adam Shlahet has stated that former President Donald Trump's chances of ending up behind bars are "more likely now" due to his lack of remorse and repeated violations of Judge Juan Merchan's gag order. This news comes after a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records relating to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.

This makes Trump the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes. Despite allegations made by Daniels regarding a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies, Trump has maintained his innocence and claims that the case brought against him by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is politically motivated. Trump's legal team is prepared to fight the case, including a potential appeal if necessary.

The former president now faces the possibility of jail time, which will be determined at his sentencing on July 11 by Judge Merchan, just before the Republican National Convention where it is expected that Trump will accept the party's nomination. Shlahet, director of the Brendan Moore Trial Advocacy Center at Fordham Law, has expressed a shift in his previous belief that incarceration was unlikely, now considering it more probable.

Shlahet highlighted Trump's conduct and rhetoric towards Judge Merchan, including 10 separate violations of the gag order, resulting in a total fine of $10,000. Trump has repeatedly criticized Merchan as "highly conflicted" and "corrupt" both on social media and in public speeches. These actions, along with Trump's lack of respect for the jury's verdict, are seen as aggravating factors that could lead the judge to impose jail time.

Falsifying business records in New York state is a Class E felony, the least serious of the state's five felony levels, with no minimum prison sentence for a first-time offender like Trump. However, the potential for years-long sentencing, fines, probation, or conditional discharge exists. Legal experts are divided on whether Trump is likely to serve jail time in this unprecedented situation.

Former U.S. attorney and legal analyst Michael Moore does not believe that Trump's incarceration is probable, suggesting that some form of supervision, such as home confinement, may be more likely due to logistical complications in dealing with a former president. Moore also notes that a jail sentence could play into Trump's argument of being singled out due to the upcoming election.

Fordham Law School professor Cheryl Bader believes the odds of Trump serving a jail sentence are unlikely, suggesting the possibility of house arrest due to his first offense, nonviolent nature of the crime, and advanced age at 77 years old. Bader also notes that the sentence would likely be stayed during the appeals process.

Barbara McQuade, former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, shares concerns about Trump's lack of remorse and repeated violations of the gag order, which she believes show a lack of respect for the law. However, McQuade does not expect Trump to begin serving any potential sentence until well after the election.

As the presidential race between Trump and President Joe Biden remains tight, with Trump leading by 1.1 points according to FiveThirtyEight's national poll aggregator, their first debate is scheduled for June 27. It is worth noting that the U.S. Constitution does not prohibit a convicted candidate from running for president from jail, as confirmed by one of Trump's lawyers, Alina Habba.

In conclusion, the lack of remorse exhibited by former President Trump, coupled with his repeated violations of the gag order, has increased the likelihood of him facing jail time. With his sentencing scheduled just days before the Republican National Convention, the outcome will have significant implications for Trump's political future.