In a recent poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, holds a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election. The survey unveiled an interesting trend where race and gender play crucial roles in shaping voter preferences.

According to the poll, Harris enjoys a seven-point advantage over Trump in the national vote, with 50% of likely voters supporting her compared to 43% for Trump. However, when the survey participants were prompted to consider the candidates' race or gender, Harris's lead grew substantially. In contrast, when these factors were not brought up, the support for both candidates was essentially tied.

Professor Dan Cassino, the Executive Director of the poll, highlighted how Trump's political career has been closely tied to a specific performance of whiteness and masculinity. While this approach was once perceived as a strength, its effectiveness in the current political landscape is now being questioned.

Examining the impact of race and gender on vote choice through an embedded experiment, the researchers found the effects to be significant. When race was mentioned, Harris's lead expanded to 14 points, with her garnering 53% support compared to Trump's 39%. Among non-white voters, Trump's support dropped by 10 points when race was made salient, while Harris's support increased by the same margin.

Furthermore, mentioning the candidates' gender influenced women's support, with Trump losing 7 points among female voters. This resulted in a shift of support from Trump to Harris, with Harris leading among women by 26 points in the gender-primed condition.

Notably, the study also shed light on the influence of traditional masculine identity among male voters. The majority of men who described themselves as "completely masculine" favored Trump by a significant margin. Conversely, all other male respondents leaned strongly towards Harris, giving her a 20-point advantage.

The findings debunk the notion that Democratic candidates should not focus on identity-related issues, as making race and gender salient to voters appeared to directly challenge Trump's support. The survey data indicated a substantial shift in support when these factors were brought into the spotlight.

The FDU poll was conducted between August 17 and August 20, 2024, with a sample size of 801 registered voters nationwide. The data were weighted to reflect the demographic characteristics of the target population. The margin of error for the survey was +/- 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval.

This survey serves as an important reminder of the significant impact race and gender can have on the electoral process. As the 2024 election approaches, these findings suggest that the way candidates address these factors could greatly influence their support among different voter groups.