In a significant political development, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has emerged victorious in a state election for the first time in Thuringia, a region in former East Germany. With a vote share of 32.8 percent, the AfD becomes the most popular party in Thuringia, while closely securing the second position in Saxony with 30.6 percent of the vote. These election outcomes are anticipated to be replicated in the upcoming Brandenburg state election on September 22, pointing towards a pervasive trend in eastern Germany.

Media analysis attributes the electoral success of the AfD to the unique circumstances prevalent in the eastern states. It is argued that the socialization of individuals who grew up under the German Democratic Republic (GDR), which collapsed in 1989-90, has resulted in a lack of full support for democracy. As a consequence, authoritarian parties such as the AfD find appeal among sections of the population. However, this explanation is contradicted by the fact that the AfD has also gained significant support from young voters. Instead, the party's triumph can be better understood as a consequence of an economic model that has failed to address the challenges faced by eastern Germany.

The roots of Germany's economic model can be traced back to the "Agenda 2010" policies introduced by the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens in the early 2000s. These neoliberal reforms aimed to enhance economic competitiveness by curbing certain aspects of the welfare state. Measures included lowering pension levels, creating a large low-wage sector, and restricting employment rights. Simultaneously, the expansion of the European Union into Eastern and Southern Europe provided German companies with a growing export market.

This led to the emergence of a low-wage regime that fueled German economic growth throughout the 2000s. Companies reduced production costs by slashing wages and using the threat of outsourcing to Eastern Europe to extract concessions from labor unions. These companies flooded the European internal market with cheap goods, sidelining local producers. Consequently, German capital relied less on the purchasing power of its own workers, allowing for the suppression of wages and resulting in stagnant real wage growth over the years.

The process of privatizing and selling off assets in the newly reunited eastern German states further perpetuated economic disparities. Large parts of the Eastern economy were passed into the hands of West German companies, often leading to factory shutdowns, mass layoffs, and a dominance of small businesses catering primarily to the local market. To this day, eastern German workers earn €800 less in gross earnings per month compared to their western counterparts. The economic gap between eastern and western Germany persists, along with a lack of resilience in the face of crises.

The influx of refugees in Germany, particularly during the peak of the Syrian war in 2016, was initially seen by capitalists and the political elite as an opportunity to address the country's demographic crisis and provide cheap labor. Refugees were championed as the "foundation for the next German economic miracle," reinforcing the notion of a welcoming culture. However, the perception has subsequently shifted, with a majority of political parties, except for Die Linke, advocating for reduced immigration, fueling concerns about crime and diminishing support for welfare benefits.

The current German economic model finds itself in crisis due to factors such as spiking energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, declining global demand for German products, and growing protectionism. This has resulted in a stagnant economy, rising costs for households, and declining real wages for workers. In response, the government has taken measures to support companies and restrict welfare benefits. However, these actions have only deepened the discontent among the population, which has been co-opted by right-wing narratives blaming immigrants for the economic struggles.

The AfD has capitalized on the frustration generated by government policies, attracting various segments of society, including small business owners, professional workers, tradesmen, and farmers. By exploiting divisions among different groups, the party has successfully insolated the economic model from popular criticism. Eastern Germany, with its fragile economy, high levels of poverty, and persistent inequalities, has proven particularly receptive to the AfD's message, but the party has also gained traction in other regions of the country, such as Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.

The failure of Die Linke, the supposed left-wing alternative, has also played a significant role in strengthening the right-wing opposition. Internal divisions within Die Linke, particularly regarding Germany's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have rendered the party ineffective in offering a unified stance. As a result, the AfD has positioned itself as the only viable opposition to a rising militarism and a government seen as incapable of addressing economic concerns.

Efforts to counter the rightward shift by the current government have inadvertently substantiated the legitimacy of the right-wing agenda while reinforcing the image of the AfD as the only true opposition party. This situation calls for an urgent need for a cohesive and persuasive opposition from the left, as the absence of such a force will only perpetuate the rightward trajectory.

Overall, the AfD's victory in Thuringia highlights the deep-rooted economic discontent that prevails in Germany, particularly in eastern regions. The failure of the existing economic model to address the needs of the population has created fertile ground for right-wing narratives that scapegoat immigrants and exacerbate societal divisions. It is crucial for political leaders to address these underlying economic concerns and offer inclusive solutions to bridge the social and economic gaps within the country.