In the first round of French legislative elections held on Sunday, projections show that the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, emerged as the frontrunner with 34 percent of the national vote. The left-wing alliance known as the New Popular Front secured second place with a projected 28 percent, while President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Together alliance lagged behind with 20 percent.

Despite falling short of a majority, the National Rally's strong performance raises the possibility of a significant shift in French politics. If the party can further expand its lead and win a majority in the second round of voting on July 7, it could pave the way for 28-year-old Jordan Bardella to become France's first far-right prime minister since World War II. This would represent a departure from Macron's pro-Europe, pro-business agenda, as the National Rally's platform is centered around populism, euroskepticism, and anti-immigration policies.

While Macron can remain as president until his term expires in 2027 and has stated that he will not resign, a far-right victory could lead to the adoption of nationalist laws, potentially paralyzing French politics. If the second round fails to produce a clear majority, agreement on a new government in the lower house of parliament may become impossible.

These projected election results are likely to cause concern in European capitals, as France is a founding member of the European Union, the second largest economy within the bloc, and plays a significant role in EU affairs. Although the National Rally no longer advocates for leaving the EU, its proposals often diverge from EU policies, causing apprehension among other member states. Additionally, a far-right victory may undermine Europe's stance on Russia and reduce support for Ukraine, as Le Pen challenges Macron's foreign policy and defense strategies.

The outcome of these elections can be seen as a referendum on Macron's presidency, as he established his own movement and disrupted traditional French politics as the first non-traditional party candidate to be elected president. However, Macron's popularity has waned, leading to speculation that his approach has fragmented the center and given rise to more extreme parties.

The National Rally party, which evolved from a fringe movement founded by Le Pen's father, has experienced a significant increase in support over the past two years, almost doubling from 19 percent in the 2022 legislative elections to 36 percent in the current projections.

Macron called for snap elections following his alliance's defeat in the European Parliament elections on June 9, hoping for a higher turnout and increased chances for his alliance. However, public sentiment in France has remained largely unchanged since the European elections, resulting in a challenging electoral climate for Macron.

The success of the National Rally highlights growing concerns over living costs and immigration, despite Macron's efforts to address these issues. Some National Rally candidates and their supporters have been criticized for spreading vitriolic rhetoric and conspiracy theories, raising concerns about the party's past affiliation with racism and antisemitism. However, some voters, like Maude, a resident of Arnouville, decided to support the National Rally, believing that France needs change and prioritizing the interests of French citizens over foreigners.

As the second round of voting approaches, the future of French politics and the potential impact on the European Union remain uncertain. The outcome will determine whether Macron's centrist experiment continues or whether France shifts towards a far-right government under the National Rally.