In the upcoming summer elections, the European Parliament is expected to undergo significant changes in its composition, driven not only by voters' decisions but also by maneuvering within parliamentary groups themselves. While party groups in the EU are often considered unified entities, they are essentially alliances of national parties that can change and reshape the Parliament's makeup.

One notable aspect of this fluidity is the shifting landscape among far-right parties in the EU. These parties appear to be gearing up for a significant reconfiguration post-election. Usually, the changes that occur between the Parliament's political groups are overlooked, but this time, the alterations could be more pronounced in the far-right spectrum.

The largest and most organized political group, the center-right European People's Party (EPP), has seen some notable shifts. According to data from Europe Elects, during the current legislative period alone, 12 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from other political groups have switched to the EPP, with seven coming from far-right groupings. Conversely, 19 MEPs have left the EPP, including the 11 Fidesz MEPs from Hungary, who departed in March 2021 to avoid expulsion. However, it is expected that all current EPP member parties will remain in the group for the foreseeable future.

The liberal Renew group, the third largest in the Parliament, has also been a site of change. It has accepted 10 MEPs from various political groups, including the Greens, Socialists and Democrats (S&D), EPP, and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Currently, Renew is deliberating the expulsion of the Dutch People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, one of its founding members, for forming a coalition with Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom.

On the other hand, the S&D group has experienced a net loss, having recruited five MEPs from other groups since 2019 while losing 13 along the way. Despite these dynamics, the most significant shifts are anticipated within the far-right party groups.

In the current Parliament, the far-right groups include the national-conservative ECR, which houses Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Poland's Law and Justice party (PiS). The right-wing populist to extremist-ranging Identity and Democracy group (ID) brings together Marine Le Pen's National Rally, Italy's the League, and the Freedom Party of Austria. Additionally, there are non-aligned far-right parties like Fidesz and Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Major changes are expected among these far-right party groups. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán seeks a new political home for Fidesz, and the recent expulsion of AfD adds to the potential for a significant reconfiguration. Three possible scenarios have emerged.

In the first scenario, the status quo would continue, with both the ECR and ID gaining seats in the elections. However, with AfD expelled, the ECR would become the larger of the two groups. Efforts led by Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would position the ECR as a mainstream negotiation partner for the EPP, potentially leaving ID on the fringes.

The second scenario involves a renewed ID forming a coalition with Fidesz and potentially PiS from the ECR. In this case, ID could surpass the ECR to become the third-largest group in the Parliament. The ECR, on the other hand, would be more open to cooperation with the EPP.

The third scenario envisions a merger of the ECR, ID, and Fidesz, creating a far-right supergroup with significant policy differences. This ambitious option is advocated by Le Pen and is favored by Meloni. However, this move would likely lead to some center-leaning parties leaving the ECR to join the EPP, altering the balance of power significantly.

These possibilities underline how different the composition of the Parliament could be, depending not only on the choices made by voters but also on post-election negotiations. The decisions made by Meloni in particular, whether to align with the center-right or forge a broader national conservative/populist alliance, will have far-reaching consequences.

The fluid nature of European party affiliations adds to the complexity of the upcoming election, leaving many voters and even Brussels insiders uncertain about which European party group the largest national delegations from France, Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Austria will belong to after the behind-the-scenes deal-making. This further contributes to the perceived disconnect between voters' choices and the intricacies of EU politics.