### U.S. Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

U.S. crude oil prices have experienced a significant spike this week, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Concerns are mounting that Israel may strike Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation for Tehran's recent ballistic missile attack. This potential conflict has heightened fears of supply disruptions, particularly in the critical Strait of Hormuz.

As a result, U.S. crude oil prices rose sharply by more than 4% on Thursday, marking the third consecutive session of gains. President Joe Biden’s comments on potentially supporting an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities added fuel to the fire. When questioned by reporters about the U.S. stance, Biden cryptically responded, "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little - anyway," but he assured, "there's nothing going to happen today."

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, attributed Thursday's price surge to Biden’s remarks. "Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are probably at their highest levels since the Gulf War," Ghali noted.

The U.S. benchmark hit an intraday high of $73.95 per barrel, registering a 5.5% increase. By midday, West Texas Intermediate for November was priced at $73.33 per barrel, a gain of $3.23 or 4.61%. Year-to-date, U.S. crude oil has edged up by over 2%. Brent crude for December also saw a rise, priced at $77.11 per barrel, an increase of $3.21 or 4.34%. Gasoline and natural gas prices followed the upward trend, with RBOB Gasoline for November up by 4.58% and natural gas for November up by 2.6%.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, emphasized that the substantial spare oil capacity held by OPEC+ is a mitigating factor against runaway prices. This capacity is crucial in cushioning potential disruptions to Iran's oil exports, which could result from Israeli strikes. Additionally, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, highlighted that any threat to the Strait of Hormuz would create a substantial risk premium for oil, potentially driving prices up to $200 per barrel.

As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, market analysts are closely monitoring the developments and their impact on global oil prices.