According to an election forecast published on Friday by The Economist, Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, and Donald Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, both have about a 50% chance of winning the Electoral College in the upcoming 2024 election.

The Electoral College awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. It's important to note that winning the national popular vote does not guarantee victory in the White House.

Based on the forecast, Harris is projected to have a median likely range of total electoral votes at 272, while Trump is projected to have 266. This marks a change from the 2020 election, where Trump garnered 232 electoral votes and Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, secured 306 electoral votes.

The forecast, developed by Columbia University, combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns, and the demographics of each state. The model estimates each major candidate's chances of winning each state and the overall Electoral College by constructing thousands of simulated scenarios.

The Economist stated, "To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100."

Key battleground states to watch for in terms of Electoral College votes, according to the forecast, include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan. These states, worth a combined 77 electoral votes, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.

Pennsylvania stands out as the state most likely to decide the election, with a 24% chance of becoming the decisive state, due to its 19 electoral votes.

A recent poll conducted by Emerson College and RealClearPolitics in Pennsylvania showed a statistical tie between Harris and Trump, with 49% of likely voters backing Trump and 48% supporting Harris. The poll had a margin of error of 3%.

The Democratic ticket has experienced a significant shift in the polls since Biden's endorsement of Harris after dropping out of the race in July. Harris has surged in national and swing state polling averages, overtaking Trump in many surveys.

Earlier predictions by Decision Desk HQ suggested that Trump would secure a significant number of Electoral votes, winning swing states like Arizona and Nevada, as well as states in the "Blue Wall" such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

However, a recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College indicated that Harris is leading Trump in North Carolina at 49% to 47% and in Arizona with 50% against Trump's 45%. Trump maintains a narrow lead in Georgia with 50% and Harris at 46%. In Nevada, Trump is also ahead with 48% versus Harris's 47%.

The poll surveyed 2,670 likely voters in four battleground states and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

As the 2024 election draws closer, the tight race between Harris and Trump is generating anticipation and speculation among political observers. The results of the election forecast offer insight into the potential outcomes, but the final verdict will ultimately be determined by the voters in key swing states.