In a pivotal moment for Ecuador, more than 13 million eligible voters are expected to participate in a referendum on Sunday that could shape the political future of President Daniel Noboa and his tough-on-crime agenda. Noboa, who assumed office last November as the youngest president in Ecuador's history, has focused his administration on combatting the rampant crime that has plagued the country.

Ecuador, once known as an "island of peace," has been caught in the crosshairs of drug cartel violence due to its strategic location between Peru and Colombia. The escalating violence has transformed the country into a battleground for rival criminal organizations vying for control over lucrative drug trafficking routes.

To address the security crisis, Noboa has taken an uncompromising stance, declaring "war" on over 20 criminal gangs he deems as "terrorists." He has authorized military assistance to the police, proposed allowing the extradition of Ecuadorians accused of crimes, and advocated for stricter penalties for violent offenses. These measures, among other proposals, will be put to a vote in Sunday's referendum.

Experts believe that the outcome of the referendum will reveal the level of public support for Noboa and his policies, potentially influencing his decision to seek re-election when his term ends in May 2025. The referendum consists of 11 questions, with five aimed at modifying the Constitution if approved and six serving as advisory in nature.

One of the most significant proposals seeks to grant the military the authority to collaborate with the police in combating organized crime, a measure that currently requires a state of emergency declaration. Additionally, the referendum could remove the constitutional prohibition on the extradition of Ecuadorian citizens and increase penalties for individuals convicted of violent offenses.

Noboa has emphasized the urgency for security reforms, stating that he needs strong support from the National Police and Armed Forces to address the escalating violence. Ecuador has witnessed a staggering rise in the murder rate, increasing from 5.8 homicides per 100,000 people in 2016 to 25.6 in 2022, comparable to the violence seen in countries such as Colombia and Mexico.

The referendum holds considerable political significance as it was Ecuadorians' growing discontent with elevated security threats that led to the calling of a snap election last year. Noboa won the subsequent election with a tough-on-crime campaign message, which resonated further following the assassination of a prominent anti-corruption candidate at a campaign event.

In the early stages of his presidency, Noboa faced a major security setback when a notorious gang leader escaped from prison, prompting him to declare a nationwide state of emergency. In response, criminal groups launched a wave of violent attacks, including the takeover of a television station. Noboa, in an unprecedented move, declared an "internal armed conflict" and ordered the armed forces to neutralize the criminal gangs he deemed as "terror groups."

The recent raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito, ordered by Noboa, also garnered international attention. The arrest of former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas on embezzlement charges strained diplomatic relations with Mexico and led to concerns over violations of diplomatic norms.

While the referendum is dominated by security concerns, it also encompasses other proposals, such as allowing companies to hire workers on hourly wages and recognizing international arbitrage to resolve investment disputes.

As Ecuadorians head to the polls, the referendum's outcome will not only shape the future of security measures in the country but will also provide crucial insights into the level of public support for President Noboa's administration.