Former President Donald Trump's choice of running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, was driven by desperation as he sought to address a significant decline in support among white men. Trump's advisers believed that Vance's appeal could help retain white male voters, particularly in the Rust Belt states, according to The Washington Post.

Trump's struggle with garnering support from white men is not a recent phenomenon. A survey conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist in April revealed that the demographics that traditionally supported Trump were shifting, and the passionate backing he received from white male voters in 2016 was waning.

In 2016, Trump successfully rallied white men without college degrees by focusing on issues such as immigration and white grievance, highlighting a perceived sense of discrimination against white people. These themes remained relevant among Republican voters. However, by 2020, this argument seemed to lose ground as white voters across educational backgrounds began defecting to Joe Biden's side.

Although Trump still managed to secure the majority of white male voters in 2020, the difference in their turnout between 2016 and 2020 dealt a blow to his reelection bid. Moreover, Biden saw a significant 24-point increase in support among white men with college degrees, a group historically aligned with the Republican Party.

The decline for Trump extended to swing states as well. Polling conducted in late 2023 and early 2024 in Wisconsin, a crucial battleground state, indicated that Trump's favorability rating among white men had plummeted by 22 points. This decline was observed among self-identified Republicans, rural men, and white men without a college education – key components of Trump's base.

In an attempt to win back these voters, Trump selected J.D. Vance as his running mate. The choice was based on Vance's appeal to both college-educated and non-college educated white men, highlighting his white working-class background and Ivy League education from Yale Law School.

However, it remains uncertain if Vance can effectively appeal to white male voters. A YouGov poll conducted after his nomination found that only 18 percent of male respondents viewed Vance "very" favorably, while 28 percent viewed him "very" unfavorably. The sentiments were identical among white respondents. The poll also revealed a nearly even split between supporting and disapproving Trump's selection of Vance among male and white respondents.

CNN analyst Harry Enten reported that Vance's net favorability averaged at negative six points across various polls, making him the least favorably viewed vice presidential nominee in history, including former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

As the 2024 election approaches, Donald Trump's choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate reflects his desperation to secure the support of white male voters. However, it remains to be seen whether Vance's appeal will be enough to swing the scales in Trump's favor.