### Trump Poised to Potentially Break 20-Year GOP Popular Vote Record

In a stunning twist in the lead-up to next month's election, former President Donald Trump, now the GOP nominee, could make history by winning the popular vote—a feat not achieved by a Republican in two decades, according to election analyst Harry Enten. Recent polling data suggests a tight race between Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

Enten, a political data reporter for CNN, highlighted several polls on CNN News Central showing a nearly tied race in the popular vote between Trump and Harris. While the popular vote does not determine the election outcome due to the Electoral College system, it remains a significant indicator of broader voter support. Winning the popular vote would be a notable achievement for Trump, who has lost it in his previous two presidential bids.

In the 2016 election, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by around 3 million votes but secured the presidency with 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227. In the 2020 election, Trump lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College to Joe Biden, who received approximately 7 million more votes and secured 306 electoral votes compared to Trump's 232.

Enten pointed out that no Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in his 2004 reelection campaign against John Kerry. Bush had also lost the popular vote four years earlier in a contentious race against Al Gore, where he secured his presidency through the Electoral College. The last Republican to win the popular vote before Bush was his father, George H.W. Bush, in 1988.

While these are promising signs for Trump, Enten also noted potential advantages for Harris. He explained that Trump's strong polling in states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas might inflate his national popular vote numbers without necessarily translating to an Electoral College victory. This scenario could allow Harris to clinch the presidency by winning key battleground states in the Great Lakes region, which are currently too close to call. States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are particularly critical in this regard.

Several polls reflect this close contest. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from October 20 to 23 showed both candidates with 48 percent of voter support, surveying 2,516 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. A Wall Street Journal poll from October 19 to 22 had Trump leading Harris 47 to 45 percent, sampling 1,500 registered voters with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

In other polls, Harris holds slight advantages. A YouGov poll conducted for the Times and SAY24 between October 18 and 21 found Harris ahead 47 to 45 percent, with a margin of error of 3 percent from surveying 1,266 registered voters. An ABC News/Ipsos poll from October 4 to 8 showed Harris leading Trump 51 to 48 percent, based on responses from 2,631 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

With the election fast approaching, the race remains highly competitive, and either candidate could emerge victorious in both the popular vote and the all-important Electoral College.