Dollar Strengthened by Robust Job Data Amidst Geopolitical Tensions, Driving Oil Prices Up

ICARO Media Group
Politics
04/10/2024 21h12

**Dollar Surges, Oil Prices Climb Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Robust U.S. Job Report**

MSCI's global equities index made significant gains as the dollar soared to its highest point since mid-August, driven by an unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market report. Oil prices also experienced a notable rally, culminating in the largest weekly gains seen in over a year, fueled by mounting concerns of a regional conflict in the Middle East.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that 254,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in the previous month, surpassing the forecasted 140,000 by economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than anticipated, and job growth for August was revised upwards. This better-than-expected employment report led to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen since early August, as traders revised their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Traders now predict a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in November, a significant increase from the 68% probability observed the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, highlighted that the strong job growth suggests investors are more focused on economic expansion, even if it comes with hawkish monetary policies. The resilience of both the stock and Treasury markets in view of the Fed's anticipated rate cuts reflects a positive economic outlook.

Further alleviating concerns for the U.S. economy was the reopening of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending the industry's most prolonged work stoppage in nearly fifty years. However, the task of clearing the accumulated cargo backlog remains.

Investor anxiety is still palpable regarding potential Israeli retaliation after Iran's missile attack on Tuesday. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran and its allies would not relent. On the other hand, oil prices tempered their gains after President Joe Biden advised Israel to seek alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields, adding that Israel has yet to determine its course of action.

U.S. crude oil settled at $74.38 a barrel, climbing 0.9%, while Brent closed at $78.05 per barrel, up 0.55%. The dollar index, which appraises the greenback against several currencies, surged 0.56% to 102.48, marking its largest weekly gain since September 2022.

The euro dropped 0.5% to $1.0976, and the dollar appreciated 1.25% against the Japanese yen, reaching 148.77. U.S. Treasury yields also saw an increase, with the 10-year note yield rising 12.5 basis points to 3.975%. The 30-year bond yield went up by 7.9 basis points to 4.259%, while the 2-year note yield, closely aligned with interest rate expectations, rose by 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold prices fell as the robust jobs report dampened hopes for additional significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold decreased by 0.23% to $2,649.89 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures dropped 0.38% to $2,647.10 per ounce.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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