Dollar Decline Continues Amid Tax Bill Uncertainties and Trade Struggles

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ICARO Media Group
Politics
21/05/2025 09h56

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In recent movements, the dollar extended its decline against several major currencies, influenced by President Donald Trump's difficulty in garnering Republican support for his extensive tax bill. The lack of progress in ongoing trade negotiations and concerns over policy shifts at the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Canada have added to market anxieties.

Even though the current week has seen a reduction in the dramatic swings caused by President Trump's global tariff conflicts, the absence of new trade agreements as the 90-day tariff respite nears its end keeps traders on edge. Optimism remains that the White House aims to reestablish steady trade flows, but negotiations with key allies, Japan and South Korea, appear to be stalling.

Heightening market concerns, the downward trend of the dollar occurs as U.S. Treasury yields rise, reflecting a "sell America" sentiment that, while less pronounced than earlier this month, persists among investors. According to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, while they do not see a dire future for the USD, they anticipate a weakening trend in 2026 when tariff uncertainties diminish and lower interest rates aid global economic recovery.

A recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating by Moody's has had minimal market impact but has further contributed to a declining confidence in U.S. assets as stable investment sanctuaries. Consequently, the dollar has experienced depreciation against every major currency this year.

The proposed tax legislation, projected to inflate the nation’s debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion, has exacerbated fiscal concerns. The increased government debt, coupled with ongoing trade tensions and reduced market confidence, continues to weigh heavily on the U.S. market outlook.

The auction of 20-year Treasuries later today is anticipated as a critical indicator of current investor sentiment towards long-term U.S. debt. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato indicated that discussions with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would center on maintaining currency stability, an essential factor during volatile exchanges.

Significantly, the yen rose sharply against the dollar, bolstered by a notable rise in domestic bond yields. Safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold also saw gains following reports from CNN suggesting potential Israeli preparations for action against Iranian nuclear sites.

Adding to the dollar's struggles, the pound surged to its strongest level since February 2022, as unexpectedly high UK consumer inflation data decreased the Bank of England’s ability to rapidly cut interest rates. Sterling climbed as much as 0.58%, while the euro appreciated by 0.3%.

Federal Reserve officials reiterated their concerns regarding the economic impacts of President Trump’s trade policies. Their collective stance remains one of caution as they assess the unfolding developments.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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