In a surprising turn of events, calls for President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race have escalated, prompting intense speculation about the state of his candidacy. As of Wednesday afternoon, 10 Democratic members of Congress have either publicly urged Biden to step aside or reportedly did so in a private meeting. Another 37 have expressed concerns about his nomination, but have not yet called for his withdrawal. However, amidst the growing opposition, there is a substantial group of Democratic lawmakers who continue to support Biden, bolstering his chances of staying in the race.

The Democrats who have explicitly called for Biden to step aside come from differing factions within the party. This eclectic mix includes three Progressive Democrats, four Core Democrats, and three Moderate Democrats. These lawmakers, ranging in age from 42 to 77, represent predominantly secure Democratic seats, with only two facing potential challenges in their reelection bids. While most are white, there is representation from other racial backgrounds as well.

A closer examination reveals a clearer pattern among those expressing concerns about Biden's candidacy. This group is considerably more moderate than the overall Democratic caucus, with an average ideology score lower than the party's average. Additionally, a significant number of these lawmakers hail from swing states or districts that Biden either lost in the 2020 election or won by a narrow margin. The fear of being dragged down by a potentially unpopular nominee has likely influenced their hesitation to fully back Biden.

Conversely, the Democrats standing firmly with Biden are generally more progressive, not aligning with the Moderate Democrats cluster. They overwhelmingly represent states and districts that strongly supported Biden in the 2020 election, indicating that they face a greater risk from primary challenges rather than general election losses. Notably, this group is also more racially diverse, with only 38 percent identifying as white.

Support from key Democratic figures has bolstered Biden's position. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, and House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar have all voiced their support for Biden. Their backing carries significant weight within the Democratic Party.

Furthermore, Biden's core base of support among Black voters remains intact, as evidenced by the support of 37 Black senators and representatives. In contrast, only one Black Democrat has expressed concerns about his candidacy so far. This mirrors Biden's historical support among Black voters, who played a crucial role in securing his nomination during the 2020 primary elections.

While any calls for a candidate to drop out of a race pose a political crisis, Biden's position is not yet severely threatened. Comparatively, during the 2016 presidential campaign, numerous Republican representatives and senators called for then-candidate Donald Trump to withdraw from the race following the "Access Hollywood" tape scandal. However, Trump withstood the pressure and ultimately won the election.

Although Biden's chances of winning the election have come under scrutiny, the unwavering support he has garnered from prominent Democrats, as well as his strong backing within the Black community, may enable him to weather the storm and stay in the race. With time running short, the final decision on whether to continue his candidacy rests with Biden himself, but the collective support from key stakeholders within the Democratic Party will likely play a significant role in his determination.

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