As President Joe Biden's embattled reelection campaign faces challenges following a disastrous debate with presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, panic among Democrats in Congress is growing, both privately and publicly. Democratic lawmakers, including Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have expressed doubts about the White House's election strategy, with some even suggesting that Biden should reevaluate his candidacy.

A group of center-left House Democrats recently met with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to convey their concerns about Biden's ability to campaign effectively and secure a victory in the upcoming election. Their worries extend beyond losing the presidential race; they fear that a struggling Biden campaign could also jeopardize the party's standing in both the House and Senate, potentially leading to minority status and even impacting their individual reelection campaigns.

The correlation between winning presidential candidates and success in down-ballot races is well-documented. Known as the "coattail effect," research has shown that congressional candidates often rise or fall alongside the top of the ticket. Political scientist Robert Erikson's study in 2016 found that for every percentage point a presidential candidate gains in the two-party vote, their party's down-ballot candidates gain approximately half a point themselves. Additionally, a 1990 study by James E. Campbell and Joe A. Sumners concluded that every 10-point gain by a presidential candidate in a state boosts their party's Senate contender by 2 points and House hopefuls by 4 points.

Democrats are particularly concerned about their chances of securing congressional majorities as they face an uphill battle in defending their Senate seats. With 23 seats to defend, including those of independents who caucus with them, compared to the GOP's 10 seats, Democrats are already at a disadvantage. Many of these vulnerable seats are in states that Trump has won in the past, such as Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. Losing Senator Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia is also expected, further tightening the path for Democrats to retain control.

Furthermore, the House is expected to maintain a modest Republican bias due to aggressive gerrymandering in states like North Carolina. This means that Democrats would likely need to secure 51 percent or more of the total House vote to secure a majority. Recent polling indicates that the battle for Congress has become more competitive since Biden's debate performance, underscoring the Democrats' worry.

Historical data also offers grim prospects for Democrats. Since 1988, losing presidential candidates have rarely secured control of Congress for their party. The only exceptions were Mitt Romney with the House in 2012 and Bob Dole with both chambers in 1996. However, even in these cases, Republicans faced losses in the House, and in 2012, retained their majority largely due to post-2010 gerrymandering. The last time a party lost a chamber of Congress while their nominee won the general election was in 1832 when Andrew Jackson's Democrats lost the Senate.

The situation appears to worsen for Democrats if Biden falls below 40 percent of the vote on Election Day, as current polling suggests. No major-party nominee has performed below that threshold since George H.W. Bush in 1992. In that year, Republicans secured 176 seats in the House and 43 seats in the Senate, falling short of a majority.

The potential for a new nominee to improve Democrats' fortunes down-ballot remains uncertain. While polling suggests that some battleground state Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming Biden, there is no definitive polling testing congressional races under different presidential nominees. However, the fact that many Democrats, particularly those in vulnerable positions, are hoping for Biden to step aside indicates their belief that a different nominee might offer a better chance of success.

Although the focus should be on President Trump's controversial policies and actions, Biden's candidacy is currently dominating the news cycle. Questions surrounding his age, recent gaffes, polling numbers, and overall health serve as distractions that impede the Democrats' ability to highlight the dangers associated with Trump's presidency. The decision for Biden to stay in the race will likely remain a central narrative until the November election, leaving Democrats preparing for potential defeat while questioning the party's leadership choices.