Crypto Whales Stake Millions on Trump Victory in Cryptocurrency Market Ahead of US Election
ICARO Media Group
**Crypto Whales Place Big Bets on Trump's Victory Ahead of US Election**
Major players in the cryptocurrency market are making substantial bets on Donald Trump securing a win in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. These bets are particularly pronounced on decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket, where a few large investors, known as "whales," hold a dominant share of Trump's "Yes" votes.
According to an analysis by the pseudonymous political bettor Domer, five principal investors control over 50% of Trump shares on Polymarket. The largest of these accounts, dubbed "Le Giga Whale," owns nearly a third of the 162 million Trump shares. Should Trump emerge victorious, these top five investors stand to gain more than $81 million.
In stark contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris' "Yes" shares are much more widely distributed. The five largest shareholders control only 18% of the total, with the largest individual stakeholder holding 4.4%. This distribution is considerably more spread out compared to Trump's concentrated holdings, where the main account alone controls 29.1% of the shares.
As the election date looms, these crypto investments could have significant implications for the market. Domer suggests that some of the largest Trump bets might even be controlled by a single entity, driven by a strong belief in Trump's chances and growing confidence as betting prices rise.
Currently, Trump maintains a lead in Polymarket’s prediction market with odds of 56.9%, compared to Harris' 43%. Other platforms like Kalshi also show a narrower lead for Trump at 54%, compared to Harris' 46%. However, traditional polling methods present a different scenario. According to The New York Times, Harris holds a slight edge with a 49% chance of winning against Trump's 48%.
These prediction markets, where people wager their own money, could arguably offer a more accurate forecast than traditional polling systems. As billionaire Elon Musk noted, the financial stakes might provide a sharper insight into voter sentiment.
The fluctuating odds have had a noticeable impact on the cryptocurrency market as well. Recent profit-taking in Bitcoin, driven by shifts in poll results showing a slight lead for Harris, reflects concerns over a potential reduction in Bitcoin's growth should Trump lose. On October 29, Bitcoin's price surged to over $73,600, its highest since March 2024, a movement some analysts attribute to increasing confidence in a Trump win, dubbing it a "Trump pump."
Whether these crypto whales' bets will pay off remains to be seen as the election results unfold.