Chinese President Xi Jinping is embarking on his first visit to the European Union in five years, with trade tensions and geopolitical tensions set to dominate discussions. The world has drastically changed since his last visit in 2019, as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and growing EU-China disagreements have complicated the relationship between Brussels and Beijing.

Xi's trip kicks off in France, where he will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The talks are expected to revolve around divisions concerning Russia's war in Ukraine, as France has imposed sanctions on Moscow through the EU, while China has fostered closer ties with Russia. Macron aims to persuade China to use its influence on Russia to help resolve the conflict.

However, there are doubts about China's willingness to assist in resolving the Ukraine crisis, as previous efforts by France and other countries have yielded minimal results. China's strong partnership with Russia, exemplified by the planned visit of Russia's president to China later this month, suggests Beijing's immovability on this issue.

Another sticking point in the EU-China relationship is trade. Xi is expected to sign new business deals during his visit to France, including potential orders with French aviation giant Airbus. While the EU and China are major trading partners, the EU has repeatedly criticized China for unfair market access and alleged protectionism. Last year, the EU initiated a probe into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies, which Beijing dismissed as "naked protectionism." Experts predict that EU-China trade dynamics will change gradually amid the strained ties.

After France, Xi's journey takes him to Serbia, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the US bombardment of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during NATO's campaign against Yugoslavia. Although the incident was officially deemed an accident with compensation paid, there are lingering beliefs in China that it was a deliberate act. This historical event has contributed to a shared victimhood narrative and added significance to the need for reconstructing the global order, according to experts.

Serbia, an EU membership candidate, has become a focal point of competing geopolitical interests. While the EU remains its top economic partner, China's investments in the country have exceeded €10.3 billion ($11 billion) between 2009 and 2021. Concerns have been raised about the negative environmental impacts of Chinese capital in Serbia, highlighting the need for a deeper discussion on the consequences of Chinese investments.

Finally, Xi concludes his trip in Hungary, a country known for its strained relationship with the EU. Hungary has often clashed with Brussels and has been accused of obstructing EU statements on various issues, including Hong Kong and Russia. Chinese Foreign Ministry has identified Hungary as a partner with deepened political mutual trust. Experts see Hungary as China's Trojan horse in the EU, benefiting from EU disunity and advocating for improved EU-China ties.

Xi's visit to Europe underscores the challenges of maintaining a positive relationship amidst trade tensions and geopolitical complexities. As the world's powers vie for influence, it remains to be seen whether China and the EU can avert a full-blown trade war and find common ground on sensitive geopolitical issues.

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