In a recent hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines revealed that China has provided crucial assistance to Russia in its efforts to sustain its defense industry and gain momentum in Ukraine. Although China has refrained from providing lethal weaponry, it has supplied dual-use components and materials needed for Russia's military machine.

Haines stated that China's provision of technology and tools to Russia's defense industry has significantly favored Moscow in the Ukrainian battlefield. This support has not only facilitated Russia's incremental progress in Ukraine, but it has also accelerated the reconstitution of its military strength after the costly invasion.

The assistance from China is part of its broader strategy to deepen ties with both Russia and Iran. U.S. officials have previously noted that China has supplied Russia with dual-use drone and rocket technology, satellite imagery, and machine tools essential for defense production. The term "dual use" refers to items that can be utilized for both civilian and military purposes.

Addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine, Haines emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that current domestic and international trends are working in his favor. On the other hand, Ukraine faces political difficulties in securing additional military aid from the United States and Europe. Consequently, Haines believes that the war is unlikely to end anytime soon.

While Russia has expressed openness to peace talks, Putin has shown no willingness to make significant concessions. Additionally, Russia remains focused on interfering with American elections, according to Haines. When questioned about increased Russian activity aimed at the November elections, she confirmed that such activities persist and are growing.

Turning to China, Haines stated that the Chinese leadership is primarily focused on bolstering its sluggish economy and is unlikely to pursue major economic retaliation against the United States. The decline in foreign direct investment (down 77.5% in 2023) is expected to prompt China to take measured responses, rather than direct economic retaliation, to avoid negative domestic economic consequences.

Haines added that Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasingly concerned about the United States' ability to interfere with China's technological goals. The Biden administration has already imposed restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology to China due to concerns over its potential military applications.

Regarding the threat posed by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Haines noted that these groups have temporarily suspended attacks on U.S. forces in the region. The duration of this "pause" remains uncertain and dependent on the role of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The Iraqi government maintains friendly relations with both the U.S. and neighboring Iran.

Haines also highlighted that a series of retaliatory U.S. airstrikes against militia groups in Iraq and Syria, following numerous attacks on American troops, have helped deter further aggression. However, she emphasized that these factors can adjust over time, leading to a potential resumption of hostilities.

In summary, China's assistance to Russia's defense industry in Ukraine has tilted the battlefield momentum in Moscow's favor, according to the U.S. intelligence official. While the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon, Russian interference in American elections and concerns over China's technological goals remain ongoing challenges. The current temporary pause in attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could be influenced by the role of the Iraqi Prime Minister.