### Prospects of Expanding Abraham Accords Face Increasing Challenges

Amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, the envisioned expansion of the Abraham Accords, a key promise by President-elect Donald Trump, appears more challenging than ever. Despite optimistic views held by some experts and officials, recent actions and rhetoric from Israel and Saudi Arabia suggest significant obstacles ahead.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, speaking at a recent summit in Riyadh, accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people. He also advocated for the respect of Iran's sovereignty. These statements reflect Saudi Arabia's longstanding condemnation of Israel amidst its ongoing conflict with Iran and its affiliates. This comes in the wake of a cautious diplomatic rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, brokered by China in March 2023 after years of strained relations.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration plan to reintroduce policies tied to Trump’s 2020 "deal of the century," which integrates Israeli settlements into contiguous Israeli territory. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich echoed this sentiment, touting 2025 as "a year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria." However, newly appointed Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar has expressed skepticism about the Abraham Accords, suggesting the need for Israel to manage its expectations regarding alliances with moderate Arab states.

Sa'ar's remarks, including his opposition to the creation of a NATO-like "Abraham Alliance" proposed by Netanyahu, cast doubt on the robustness of these diplomatic ties. He pointed out that relationships with these nations often result in criticism towards Israel, especially in its confrontations with Iran and related entities. Sa’ar’s office has not clarified his stance on key issues, such as whether Arab countries should aid in rebuilding Gaza or the feasibility of Jerusalem compromising for peace with Riyadh.

Despite these public disagreements, some analysts remain hopeful for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Sources close to Netanyahu believe that Saudi Arabia's critical rhetoric could be strategic, aimed at navigating complex regional dynamics rather than indicating a complete disinterest in collaboration. Faisal J. Abbas, editor-in-chief of Arab News, wrote that lasting peace and stability could still be achieved by revisiting and updating Trump’s deal of the century in concert with expanding the Abraham Accords. Abbas suggested that Saudi Arabia's insistence on Palestinian state recognition might be a crucial factor in moving forward.

Dan Diker, President of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, highlighted a crucial choice facing many Arab countries: aligning with either the destabilizing Iranian regime or a more stable, technologically advanced Israel. He emphasized that Crown Prince bin Salman must balance his forward-looking vision for Saudi Arabia with domestic and regional pressures.

The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain against this backdrop of strained alliances and evolving geopolitical chess games. Whether Trump’s renewed focus on the Accords can bridge these divides remains to be seen, as both Israel and Saudi Arabia navigate complex and often conflicting interests.