### Trump's Support Among White Voters in Pennsylvania Shows Signs of Erosion

Former President Donald Trump is encountering unexpected difficulties in Pennsylvania, as recent polling data indicates a decline in his support among white voters, a key demographic in this critical swing state.

The latest Fox News poll, conducted between October 24 and 28 among 1,310 registered voters in Pennsylvania, reveals that Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris among white voters by only 4 points, 52 percent to 48 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus several percentage points.

White voters have been a cornerstone of Trump’s electoral success. In the 2016 election, 54 percent of white voters nationally backed him, giving him a 15-point lead over Hillary Clinton, while in the 2020 election, 55 percent of white voters supported him, securing him a 12-point advantage. In Pennsylvania specifically, Trump led white voters by 15 points in 2020, according to CNN's exit polls.

However, the decline in his support among white voters in Pennsylvania is becoming apparent across multiple polls. The AtlasIntel poll conducted between October 25 and 29 shows Trump leading among white voters by 6 points. Similarly, the CNN/SSRS poll conducted between October 23 and 28 also reports a 4-point lead for Trump. On a slightly more favorable note for Trump, Quinnipiac University's poll from October 24 to 28 presents an 11-point lead among white voters, though this is still smaller than in previous years.

This dwindling support is concerning for Trump's campaign, especially in a state as crucial as Pennsylvania, which boasts 19 decisive Electoral College votes. Pennsylvania has traditionally been a barometer of national sentiment, voting for the winning presidential candidate in 48 of the past 59 elections.

The demographics of Pennsylvania amplify the significance of these numbers; the state is 75 percent white and working class. Trump's narrowing lead among this core group signals potential trouble ahead. National polling aggregation from 538 shows Trump with a narrow 0.4-point edge, while Nate Silver’s data indicates a 0.6-point lead, and RealClearPolitics shows a 0.7-point advantage.

Unexpected events are also contributing to the fluctuating dynamics. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s offensive comment about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday triggered significant backlash. Although Trump's campaign quickly distanced itself from the remarks, the fallout might impact Trump more in Pennsylvania, which has the highest percentage of Puerto Rican residents at 3.7 percent.

Simultaneously, Kamala Harris seized the moment with a visit to Allentown, Pennsylvania, where she released a video outlining her plan for Puerto Rico. The video was shared by Puerto Rican music icon Bad Bunny on his Instagram account, potentially boosting her appeal.

Early voting trends also paint a complex picture. Data from the University of Florida’s early vote tracker reveals that registered Democrats comprise 57 percent of early voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 32 percent for Republicans. While this indicates a higher turnout among Democrats, it remains unclear how it will translate to final votes cast.

With polls remaining extremely tight in Pennsylvania, the erosion of Trump's support among white voters could have significant implications for the overall election outcome.