Challenges and Costs of Trump's Ambitious Mass Deportation Plan
ICARO Media Group
### Trump's Mass Deportation Plan Faces Immense Hurdles
In the final stretch of his presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump is intensifying his pledge to conduct the largest mass deportation in U.S. history. At recent rallies, including one in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump has reiterated his vow to "get these people out" swiftly. The economic, humanitarian, and constitutional issues of such a plan, however, are substantial.
An analysis by CBS News details the high costs and logistical challenges of deporting the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. The average cost to deport one person has been about $19,599 over the past five fiscal years. Even under better conditions during Trump’s first term, the cost per deportation was still substantial at $14,614. Deporting every undocumented immigrant over the next presidential term would cost between $160 billion and $216 billion, compared to ICE's $9 billion budget last year.
Trump suggests that local law enforcement would assist with the mass deportations, but experts like Abigail Andrews from the University of California, San Diego, argue that local police cooperation cannot be guaranteed. Trump’s plan to deploy the National Guard also faces legal barriers, as federal troops are typically prohibited from civilian law enforcement activities unless Congress intervenes.
The backlog of immigration cases already presents a major hurdle. U.S. immigration courts currently face 3.7 million pending cases, with projections suggesting it would take eight more years and 700 additional judges to clear this backlog. Adding 11 million new cases could expand the backlog to 13.5 million by FY 2028, despite plans to hire 150 new judges annually.
Economically, deporting millions of immigrants could harm the U.S. job market and GDP. Studies show that for every one million unauthorized workers deported, 88,000 native-born jobs could be lost. A mass deportation of 1.3 million undocumented immigrants is projected to lower U.S. GDP and employment by 0.8% by 2028, with larger deportations causing even more significant economic impacts.
Undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to the economy, paying $59.4 billion in federal taxes and $37.3 billion to state and local taxes, including contributions to Medicaid, Social Security, and unemployment insurance. Additionally, there are about 4.1 million mixed-status families in the U.S., with 4.4 million U.S.-born children living with at least one undocumented parent. The deportation of these family members could lead to severe social and emotional distress for children and spouses, according to researchers.
In summary, while Trump's mass deportation plan is a central promise of his campaign, its feasibility and implications present significant challenges that may render the goal unattainable within the desired timeframe.