### Trump Takes Lead in Betting Markets Despite Polls Showing Tight Race

In the final weeks before the presidential election, betting markets have seen a significant shift favoring former President Donald Trump, even as polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This divergence has sparked considerable interest among political analysts and bettors alike.

Polls aggregating data from key battleground states have shown a close contest, often within the margin of error, between Harris and Trump. However, betting markets like Polymarket have tilted strongly toward Trump. Polymarket, a crypto-based predictions market where users place bets via stablecoins, has seen an influx of activity, especially in October. Data reveals that Polymarket's trading volume hit $1.24 billion in October alone, making it a hotspot for election wagers.

At Polymarket, Trump's odds have surged to 60.1%, substantially ahead of Harris's 39.8%. This stark contrast is fueled by massive bets in favor of Trump. Notably, four accounts have placed bets totaling $30 million on Trump, according to blockchain-analysis firm Arkham Intelligence. The accounts appear to behave similarly, suggesting they could belong to the same entity.

Among the influential figures involved in Polymarket are early Facebook investor Peter Thiel, Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin, and Airbnb’s Joe Gebbia. Their participation underscores the platform’s growing popularity and credibility in prediction markets.

Another betting market, Kalshi, shows a similar trend with Trump holding a 57% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 43%. Despite these betting odds, recent national polls, such as the one from 538, show Harris leading Trump by 2 points, standing at 48.3% to Trump's 46.3%, with battleground states reflecting an almost even split.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that substantial bets on Trump's victory could be an attempt to shape public perception of his momentum. Crypto investor Adam Cochran suggested that this form of betting might be the most effective political advertising, as it bolsters the narrative of Trump's potential win through actual wagering behavior.

This situation mirrors an incident from the 2012 presidential election when significant bets were placed on Republican nominee Mitt Romney, ultimately resulting in losses as President Barack Obama was re-elected. Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen, but the betting markets continue to attract attention as election day approaches.