### Tight Races in Historical Context: States to Watch as Election Day Nears

As decision day approaches for the presidential election, focus has intensified on the seven states deemed Toss-ups, with political analysts, strategists, and voters all closely monitoring their status. Veteran Obama strategist David Plouffe, currently advising the Harris campaign, recently predicted that these states are on course to be decided by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point or less.

Historical data sheds light on such closely contested elections. An analysis of presidential races from 1976 onwards reveals how frequent it has been to have states decided by narrow margins. For example, in 2000, five states were decided by less than one percentage point, the highest number within this criteria.

During Barack Obama's elections, fewer states had such tight margins. Notably, in 2012, only Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, fit this category. Obama benefitted from the "tipping point state"—crucial for securing an Electoral College majority—leaning more left than the national popular vote, with Colorado being pivotal in both of his elections. In contrast, during the Trump era, Wisconsin emerged as the critical tipping point state in both 2016 and 2020, each time decided by less than one point.

The Republican advantage in tightly contested states was evident in previous decades. In 1984 and 1988, despite losing the closest states, Republicans won the presidential election comfortably. Conversely, in more competitive races, like in 1976, Gerald Ford won the majority of the narrowly decided states despite losing to Jimmy Carter. This trend continued in 1980, where Carter secured just one of the seven marginal states amidst a broader Reagan victory.

This year's race remains highly uncertain. Michigan stands out as Joe Biden's strongest contender among the seven key swing states, while North Carolina favors Donald Trump. However, neither candidate has convincingly secured what should be their easier wins in these states. Additionally, early voting turnout in western North Carolina appeared unaffected by Hurricane Helene, according to a turnout map from Catawba College.

House polling data has also reflected a tight contest, with slight movements favoring Republicans recently. Polls asking voters about their preferred candidate in local House races have shown mixed results; RealClearPolitics indicates a slight Republican lead, while FiveThirtyEight shows a tie. Nonpartisan district-level polling has also exhibited narrow leads, such as Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) leading 50%-43% against Rob Bresnahan (R) in a Trump-won district.

Similarly, polling in key Senate races in the Industrial North has shown Democratic Senate candidates often ahead of their presidential counterparts in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For instance, Harris leads Trump significantly in Wisconsin according to a CNN/SSRS poll, but Senator Tammy Baldwin’s lead over her Republican challenger is slimmer.

These tight margins across presidential, House, and Senate races highlight the competitive nature of contemporary elections. As the nation awaits the final vote count, the prospect of several states being decided by less than two points underlines the significance of every vote cast in determining the political landscape.