### Trump's Potential Re-Election Raises Questions About Iran's Diplomacy

As the possibility of another four years of Donald Trump looms over Iran, U.S. national security officials and analysts are closely monitoring Tehran's recent diplomatic maneuvers. Key among these is the cease-fire negotiation between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran's strongest ally in Lebanon, which has intensified after months of conflict. According to U.S. officials and experts in the region, Hezbollah would not consider any cease-fire without explicit direction from Tehran.

Additionally, Iran's engagement with the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog is also under scrutiny. Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited Iran for the first time since May, after persistent efforts to have Tehran lift its de facto ban on IAEA inspectors accessing the country’s nuclear sites.

A former Trump administration official, speaking anonymously, commented, "It's clear they're scared." This sentiment reflects a broader expectation that Trump would continue his policies of fervent support for Israel and a "maximum pressure" campaign aimed at economically and diplomatically isolating Iran while it pursues its nuclear ambitions.

Nonetheless, Trump’s administration could take a different turn. Some analysts highlight Trump’s transactional nature. Despite selecting Iran hawks for top posts, he has also appointed officials advocating restraint, which could offer Iran a slim opportunity to appeal for reduced U.S. diplomatic pressure — provided, of course, that Trump’s team perceives Iran’s outreach as genuine.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated, "It's likely that anything Tehran could use to dampen or slow maximum pressure can and will be used, from diplomacy to denial and deception." Similarly, Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute argued that Iran might see this as a chance to establish a negotiating relationship with Trump, a move it failed to make in 2016.

Parsi remarked, "The Iranians have concluded, perhaps not openly, that they made a mistake during the Trump years." This admission corresponds with Iran's current situation, where ongoing conflicts between Israel and its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have weakened Tehran's military stance. The humanitarian crises resulting from these offensives have further complicated Iran's regional influence.

Furthermore, Trump has indicated he would not restrain Israel from its retaliatory actions against Iran, a stance different from that of President Joe Biden. Complicating matters more, Iranian agents have reportedly been targeting former Trump officials following the 2020 airstrike which killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani. This vendetta could hinder any possible diplomatic reset between Iran and a future Trump administration.

"They can try all they want," the former Trump official added. "We tend to remember things like you trying to kill us though, no matter how much you pretend to play nice in diplomatic circles."

This complex interplay of historical grievances, ongoing conflicts, and diplomatic overtures sets the stage for a precarious and uncertain chapter in U.S.-Iran relations should Trump return to office.