Despite previous skepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls and betting markets in predicting the presidential election outcome, early voting statistics provide significant clues about potential results.

Pennsylvania, a crucial state for Kamala Harris, has experienced a surge in new Democratic voters, particularly women. According to an NBC News analysis, between October 1 and 28, a total of 33,874 Democratic women who did not vote in 2020 have cast early ballots. New male Democrats number 21,292. In comparison, the early-voting Republicans who did not participate in the last presidential election include 16,334 women and 16,679 men. Overall, more than 100,000 new voters in Pennsylvania have already cast their ballots, surpassing Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory of 80,555 votes.

Taylor Swift may have contributed to the rise in new women voters in Pennsylvania. Her endorsement of Harris in September appears to have spurred a nationwide surge in voter registrations.

Meanwhile, Arizona has seen an increase in early voting among Republican men. From October 15 to 28, 19,901 Republican men and 16,515 Republican women cast early ballots. Democratic early voters in the state comprised 10,487 men and 13,533 women. Notably, non-affiliated new early voters also showed significant participation, with 15,899 men and 14,536 women casting ballots. Arizona’s total of new early voters is nearly 91,000, well above Biden’s narrow 2020 victory margin of 10,457 votes.

Donald Trump’s campaign strategy focuses on activating low-propensity voters, those who typically abstain from elections. This contrasts with Harris’s campaign, which employs a more traditional approach with extensive on-the-ground operations, including offices in battleground states and numerous staff and volunteers.

Both states remain highly competitive. According to the 538 polling average, Harris and Trump are currently tied in Pennsylvania with 48% each, while Trump holds a slight lead in Arizona, 48.8% to 46.7%.