Analysis of Potential Economic Impact of Trump's Mass Deportation Plan on Job Prospects and Taxpayer Costs
ICARO Media Group
**Trump's Mass Deportation Plan Criticized for Economic Consequences and Inaccuracy on Job Impacts**
Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has pledged to carry out the largest deportation operation in U.S. history if elected. Trump frames this proposal around the belief that both legal and illegal immigrants are seizing job opportunities from Black and Hispanic Americans. However, government data contradicts this assertion, indicating that immigrant labor is vital for economic growth and often leads to better job prospects for native-born workers. Economists warn that a mass deportation could cost taxpayers up to a trillion dollars and inflate living expenses significantly.
During a recent campaign event in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump emphasized the idea that immigrants are responsible for job losses among Black and Hispanic populations, as well as union jobs. “You have an invasion of people into our country,” Trump said. “They’re going to be attacking - and they already are - Black population jobs, the Hispanic population jobs, and they’re attacking union jobs too.”
Trump's comments have faced condemnation from Democrats and Black leaders, who consider his rhetoric to be racially charged and insulting. Janiyah Thomas, director of Team Trump Black Media, supported Trump's stance, arguing that Democrats prioritize illegal immigrants over Black Americans, attributing labor market gains during Biden's presidency to illegal immigration.
Labor statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey reveal the occupational distributions among different demographic groups. Native-born Black workers are predominantly found in management, financial operations, sales, and office support, while native-born Latino workers often occupy roles in management, office support, sales, and service occupations. In contrast, foreign-born noncitizen Black workers are usually employed in transportation and healthcare support jobs, whereas foreign-born noncitizen Hispanic workers are mostly in construction and cleaning roles.
According to Census data, international migrants contributed to more than two-thirds of the U.S. population growth in 2023 and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the country's expansion during this decade. While crossings at the border hit a peak in December 2023, the numbers have since decreased.
Trump's advisers frequently reference a report by Steven Camarota from the Center for Immigration Studies, which argues that immigrants account for a significant share of job growth in the U.S. Camarota's report states that between May 2019 and May 2024, employment rose by 3.2 million among immigrants, compared to a rise of 971,000 among U.S.-born citizens.
Economists studying immigration's impact, including Giovanni Peri from the University of California, Davis, have found that immigrant labor often enhances job prospects for native-born workers. Peri's research into the 1980 Mariel Boatlift influx of Cuban immigrants in Miami found that the wages of Black and Hispanic workers in Miami rose compared to other cities without a similar surge of immigrants.
Stan Marek, CEO of Marek Brothers Holdings LLC in Houston, also disputes the claim that illegal immigrants take jobs from native-born Americans. Marek reports that the construction industry faces a labor shortage, with many native workers' children uninterested in these trades. He advocates for a national identification system to allow illegal immigrants to work legally. Data further indicates firms will often turn to automation when faced with labor shortages, rather than hiring native workers.
Economist Ethan Lewis of Dartmouth College summarizes the research consensus by stating that immigration has a minimal negative impact on less-skilled native workers and may, in fact, create job opportunities.