****

In the heated race for New Hampshire's governor, Democrat Joyce Craig is leveraging a familiar strategy—focusing on abortion rights. However, this approach may have limited effectiveness in a state where political leanings are complex. Craig, the ex-mayor of Manchester, is advocating for expanded abortion rights in the state—the only one in New England without constitutional guarantees for the procedure. She has consistently criticized her opponent, former Senator Kelly Ayotte, for past positions aimed at curbing abortion access.

While emphasizing abortion rights has historically benefitted Democrats, even in conservative regions post-Roe, the situation in New Hampshire is nuanced. This state exhibits Democratic preferences in federal elections yet leans purple for state-level contests. Ayotte has countered Craig's attacks by pledging to maintain New Hampshire's existing law, which allows abortions up to 24 weeks and in certain conditions afterward. Despite broad support for abortion rights in the state, polls indicate it is not the leading voter issue.

Joyce Craig proposes to embed abortion rights within the state constitution, abolish restrictions post-24 weeks, create a Bureau of Reproductive Health Care within the health department, and extend Medicaid to cover abortion costs. She portrays Ayotte as a long-term adversary of reproductive freedom, pointing to Ayotte's Senate record, including support for limiting abortions after 20 weeks and defunding Planned Parenthood.

In contrast, Ayotte has launched a media blitz challenging Craig's narrative. She emphasizes her commitment to upholding the 24-week law and improving access and affordability for in-vitro fertilization, detailing her personal miscarriage experience to connect with voters. According to Craig's team, Ayotte's extensive ad spend on this topic indicates the issue's impact on the campaign.

Republicans argue that Ayotte's messaging, particularly on personal pregnancy-related struggles, neutralizes the abortion debate's potency. They believe Ayotte's stance on economic and crime issues gives her an edge. However, they acknowledge her fate may be linked to former President Donald Trump's performance in the state, where he has struggled in past elections.

Ayotte is distancing herself from Trump, contrasting her current support with her earlier disavowal of him after the 2016 "Access Hollywood" tape. Yet, Democrats persist in linking Ayotte to Trump, wagering that voter turnout against him could boost Craig's prospects. As Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair, noted, Trump’s unpopularity could indeed tip the scales in Craig’s favor.

As New Hampshire approaches a critical decision point, the electorate's prioritization of issues may ultimately determine the outcome of this tightly contested gubernatorial race.