In the race for the 2024 presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself locked in a tight competition with former President Donald Trump. While Harris currently holds a narrow lead over Trump, the margins are not as strong as those enjoyed by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, according to the latest polls.

President Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race on July 21 has led to a significant shift in the dynamics of the 2024 race. Biden's endorsement of Harris as his successor came after weeks of internal conflicts within the Democratic party, spurred by his lackluster performance against Trump in a debate held in Atlanta.

However, Trump remains undeterred, downplaying Harris' poll numbers and asserting that he is "leading by a lot." Drawing parallels to the 2016 election, where Hillary Clinton held a substantial lead in the polls but ultimately lost to Trump in the Electoral College, Trump emphasizes the need to scrutinize Harris and her policies. He claims that the more voters learn about her, the more they view her as weak and her policies as dangerously liberal.

In the 2020 election, polls consistently showed Biden in the lead, but they underestimated Trump's support, leading to a closer contest than initially predicted. Though Biden won the popular vote, critical battleground states were decided by just tens of thousands of votes, ultimately securing Trump's victory.

The most recent polling data shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump, with a national average margin of 3.3 points. Currently, approximately 47.1 percent of voters support Harris, while 43.8 percent back Trump. This margin is notably smaller than Biden's 7.1 point lead over Trump at the same time in 2020.

For the upcoming 2024 election, analysts anticipate that the outcome will once again hinge on a select few swing states, including Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states played pivotal roles in determining the 2020 election, with Biden narrowly securing wins in all four, albeit with relatively close margins.

FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Harris leading by small margins in these critical states. She is up by 0.4 percent in Georgia, 2.4 percent in Michigan, 1.3 percent in Pennsylvania, and 3.5 percent in Wisconsin. Comparatively, at the same stage in 2020, Trump held a narrow lead in Georgia, while Biden led in the other three states by greater margins.

The phenomenon of poll underestimation of Trump's support has prompted analysts to explore potential reasons. Some suggest that voters may have been hesitant to admit their intention to vote for Trump, leading to misrepresentation in polling data. Others point to issues such as weighting demographics improperly or a declining willingness among Republican voters to participate in surveys.

Nevertheless, pollsters are confident in their improved methodologies for the 2024 race, even as they acknowledge the close nature of the current campaign. Harris, while maintaining her lead, faces a competitive battle against Trump as they vie for the nation's top office.