In a significant setback for the prospect of a free presidential election in Venezuela, the country's highest court has upheld a ban on the candidacy of María Corina Machado, a prominent government critic and winner of the primary held by the United States-backed opposition faction.

The ruling, which came months after an agreement was reached between President Nicolás Maduro's government and the U.S.-backed opposition, aimed at leveling the playing field ahead of the upcoming election. Under the deal, economic sanctions on Maduro's government were eased by the United States. However, the ban on Machado's candidacy has diminished hopes for a fair electoral process.

Machado, a former lawmaker, had emerged as the opposition's frontrunner, winning the independently run primary with an overwhelming majority of over 90% of the votes. The government had imposed a 15-year ban on her running for office shortly after she formally announced her candidacy in June. Despite this ban, Machado was able to participate in the primary election organized by an independent commission.

Throughout the campaign, Machado maintained that she had not received an official notification of the ban and argued that voters, rather than ruling-party loyalists, should have the final say on her candidacy. Following the court's ruling, Machado took to Twitter to express her determination, stating, "Maduro and his criminal system chose the worst path for them: fraudulent elections. That's not gonna happen."

While Machado did not provide details of her next steps, her campaign declined to comment. In December, she filed a claim with Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice, seeking to nullify the ban and protect her political rights. However, the court decided to uphold the ban, accusing Machado of fraud, tax violations, and allegedly seeking the economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela by the United States in the past decade.

The agreement signed on the Caribbean island of Barbados between Maduro's government and the opposition narrowed down the timing of the presidential election to the second half of 2024 and called for the authorization of all presidential candidates and political parties, as long as they comply with the law. This provision allowed candidates to appeal their bans. Failure to lift the bans preventing Machado and others from running for office, as well as the release of political prisoners, could lead to the reversal of sanctions relief by the Biden administration.

Geoff Ramsey, a senior analyst on Venezuela at the Atlantic Council think tank, highlighted Machado's popularity as a threat to Maduro's government. He believes the timing of the court's ruling will place pressure on the U.S. government, which has struggled to find effective ways to address the Venezuelan crisis.

The harshest sanctions on Venezuela were imposed after the country's last presidential election, which was widely considered fraudulent and undermined Maduro's legitimacy on the international stage. Despite government efforts to discourage participation, the U.S.-backed opposition primary witnessed surprising voter turnout of over 2.4 million people, even in traditionally pro-government neighborhoods.

In recent weeks, Maduro's government has linked opposition supporters and individuals associated with Machado to alleged conspiracies aimed at assassinating the president and his inner circle. The government has intensified efforts to curtail democratic freedoms and has subjected politicians, human rights defenders, and other opponents to detention, surveillance, threats, and arbitrary criminal proceedings.

The ban on Machado is not an isolated incident, as sidelining adversaries by banning them from public office has become a common government practice in Venezuela. The court also upheld a ban on former governor and two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who had already withdrawn from the primary race.

The decision to uphold the ban on Machado has dealt a severe blow to the hopes of a free and fair presidential election in Venezuela. As the nation faces political, social, and economic crises under Maduro's leadership, the struggle for democracy continues amidst growing international scrutiny.