U.S. Stock Rally Slows Down as Major Indexes Experience Largest Drop in Months

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21/12/2023 21h18

In a welcome development for investors seeking a breather, the U.S. stock rally that had been soaring ahead at a rapid pace came to a halt on Wednesday, as major indexes witnessed their biggest drop in months. The pullback has led to a debate between bullish investors who view it as a necessary pause for the market to regain strength, and bearish investors who argue that it exposes the fragility of the recent rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a substantial 475.92 points, or 1.3%, on Wednesday, marking its most significant one-day percentage drop since October 3. Similarly, the S&P 500, which had been steadily climbing towards its previous record close, experienced a decline of 1.5%, falling just below the 4,700 mark. This drop marks its most significant percentage decline since September 26. The Nasdaq Composite, known for its strong performance in recent times, also saw a 1.5% decrease, the largest drop it has experienced since October 26.

The setback comes after nine consecutive days of rallying for both the Dow and Nasdaq, leading analysts to observe that the rapid surge had left major indexes overbought based on technical indicators. The bullish sentiment had also reached extreme levels, as indicated by investor surveys. However, experts note that heavy bullish sentiment may not reliably signal market tops, while heavy bearish sentiment often serves as a sign of market bottoms.

Market economist Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research concurs with the notion that a correction was due, stating, "Most pundits concluded that the market was overbought and due for a correction. We agree, which is why we haven't raised our longstanding year-end target of 4,600." However, Yardeni remains optimistic about the long-term prospects, with a target of the S&P 500 reaching 6,000 in two years.

Despite the recent drop, analysts remain divided on the market's future trajectory. Technical analyst Jeff de Graaf, Chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, considers the setback as an opportunity for investors, stating, "A setback in an uptrend with momentum is buyable," suggesting that weakness up to 3-5% may be a favorable buying opportunity for those with a six-month horizon. On the other hand, bearish investors like Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital, express concerns about the foundations of the rally, warning of a potential fall in the S&P 500 to 4,100 in the coming weeks.

Several factors, including options activity and Elliott Wave analysis, a form of technical analysis, point to a potential market peak, according to Kramer. The selloff on Wednesday may have been triggered by these factors, as well as the suppression of the VIX, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, through options activity. Kramer acknowledges that previous downside calls have not always marked the top, but current indicators suggest a better alignment for a possible pullback.

Investors will be closely watching the market in the coming days to determine whether the recent drop is a temporary setback or the start of a broader downward trend. Market conditions, sentiment indicators, and technical analysis will play a crucial role in guiding investors' decisions moving forward.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is based solely on the sources mentioned and should not be considered as financial advice. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The views expressed in this article do not reflect the opinion of ICARO, or any of its affiliates.

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