In a recent social media post, former President Donald Trump took credit for the record-breaking surge in the stock market, attributing it to investors betting on his potential re-election. Despite experts attributing the market's rally to a positive economic outlook, Trump insisted that it was his polls against Joe Biden that were driving investor confidence, projecting that he would win and thereby drive the market up.

During his time in office, Trump frequently boasted about the rising stock market and warned that electing Biden would lead to a devastating collapse. However, experts have noted that the notable rally can be explained by other factors, such as a resilient US economy, slower price growth, and historically low unemployment rates.

In 2022, stocks tumbled due to historic levels of inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The hikes raised concerns of slower growth, increased unemployment, corporate bankruptcies, and even a potential recession. Nevertheless, stocks rebounded strongly last year as the economy proved its resilience to higher borrowing costs and inflation began to moderate.

Recent data has shown that the US economy grew by a robust 3.3% in the fourth quarter, while annualized inflation cooled from over 9% to 3.4% in December. Additionally, unemployment remained at a low 3.7% last month. These positive indicators, combined with the expectation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, have further bolstered the stock market.

While Trump may be aware of the factors that have driven the market's advance, he appears to be claiming credit for its gains under Biden's presidency. By dangling the prospect of potential outperformance if he were to retake the White House, Trump aims to gain an edge ahead of the upcoming election.

Some experts have echoed Trump's concerns regarding the impact of inflation and foreign conflicts on the economy. However, the prevailing sentiment among economists is that the current market surge is a result of broader economic trends rather than Trump's possible re-election.

As the election season heats up, both candidates will undoubtedly seek to take credit for any positive economic indicators and warn against potential risks. Investors will closely monitor developments to assess how the market could be impacted by the election outcome, as well as other economic factors both within and outside the United States.