Retail Sales in the US Decline in January, Raising Concerns of Economic Slowdown
ICARO Media Group
In a surprising turn of events, Americans cut back on their spending more than expected in January, following the customary holiday season shopping spree. According to the Commerce Department's report released on Thursday, retail sales fell by 0.8% in January, a significant drop from the revised 0.4% increase in December.
The decline in retail sales was even more pronounced when excluding sales at auto dealerships and gas stations, with a 0.5% decrease for the month. This decline exceeded the projected 0.1% drop that economists had anticipated, marking it as the lowest monthly figure since March of the previous year.
Economists attributed part of this pullback to inclement weather conditions, but they also noted that it may be a sign that consumers are starting to feel the impact of higher interest rates and other financial obstacles. This slowdown suggests that the economic momentum from the end of 2023 could be waning.
The report further revealed that the control group of sales, which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and restaurant meals and is used to calculate economic growth, fell by 0.4% in January. This decline was unexpected, as economists had predicted an increase.
However, the silver lining in this report is that it could provide positive news for the Federal Reserve, as it may prompt them to consider cutting rates. Such a move would bring relief to both shoppers and businesses seeking lower interest rates for borrowing.
Andrew Hunter, Deputy Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, noted in a report that "real consumption appears to have declined in January," and that growth is likely to slow sharply in the first quarter. He also added that Fed officials may no longer need to be concerned about the possibility of continued economic resilience reigniting inflation.
Despite the challenges posed by higher borrowing costs and elevated prices, household spending continues to be supported by a strong job market and rising wages. In fact, there was a surprising burst of hiring in January, as employers added 353,000 jobs. This data suggests that the highest interest rates in two decades, intended to slow the economy, have yet to take hold.
However, the slowdown in January's retail sales was evident across multiple sectors. Shoppers reduced their spending in nine out of thirteen categories, including clothing and accessory stores, health and personal care businesses. Sales at building materials and garden suppliers were hit particularly hard, falling by 4.1% due to adverse weather conditions. Even online sales experienced a dip of 0.8%. On the other hand, spending at restaurants remained strong, indicating that overall spending on services remains stable.
The report also highlighted that consumer inflation in the United States cooled off slightly in January, yet it remained high. The consumer price index rose by 0.3% from December to January, resulting in a 3.1% increase compared to a year ago. This level of inflation is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, further emphasizing the public's growing frustration with rising prices.
Looking ahead, major retailers, including Walmart and Macy's, are set to report their financial results for the fourth quarter, which includes the critical holiday period. However, weaker sales at some food and beverage companies may hint at slower sales at stores. Kraft Heinz, for example, reported a slip in fourth-quarter sales as customers turned to cheaper brands due to inflation. Similarly, PepsiCo experienced a decline in revenue after numerous price hikes.
Bill Barton, CEO of Bob's Discount Furniture, acknowledged the impact of higher borrowing costs on consumer spending for big-ticket items. Barton expressed optimism that a decrease in interest rates would enhance furniture sales and alleviate some pressure on consumers.
One positive sector amidst the retail slowdown is the beauty industry, which has seen a surge in sales attributed to post-pandemic indulgence in self-care and grooming products. E.L.F. Beauty, for instance, raised its annual profit and sales outlook after reporting substantial sales gains in the latest quarter, including the holiday season.
It is essential to note that the government's monthly retail sales report only offers a partial view of consumer spending, as it does not include various services such as healthcare, travel, and hotel lodging. Thus, the overall impact on the economy may be more nuanced than what this report indicates.